Why are NFL teams and draft evaluators so obsessed with age, even when it comes to the QB position? On the pod @natetice.bsky.social and I discussed how it affects the evaluation process. 🎧: apple.co/4hZC9eT 📺: youtu.be/KzLBJnvVEfU?... - ThreadSky

minakimes.bsky.social • 13 days ago

Why are NFL teams and draft evaluators so obsessed with age, even when it comes to the QB position?

On the pod @natetice.bsky.social and I discussed how it affects the evaluation process.

🎧: https://apple.co/4hZC9eT

📺: https://youtu.be/KzLBJnvVEfU?si=XD40n4xiEuomqM2m

Comments

troonooyawker.bsky.social•13 days ago

Reminds me of last year and the Bo Nix discourse.

theuntrainedeye.bsky.social•13 days ago

A coffee employer once told me they prefer to get people have yet to work for a coffee shop. They believed it was easier to train someone than "un-train" someone. I think Bill B. once said something to the sorts over his coaching staff?

natronbomb10.bsky.social•13 days ago

Because you could end up with some old ass like Rodgers or Cousins?!?

airedmania.bsky.social•13 days ago

I guess the logic is: He’s 26 now. It takes 3 years for “the light to go on”. Now he’s 29. If he’s actually elite, you hope its for a decade but he’ll probably decline at age 33/34? So we get 4 to 5 years of good play from him and then he’s cooked? Feels like its not worth a top 60 pick.

airedmania.bsky.social•13 days ago

Also, the “Brandon Weedon” pick will never be forgotten. And GMs don’t want to be the guy who “took some old guy and it didnt pan out”.

littleredwagon.bsky.social•13 days ago

Which seems insane. 4-5 years of top level play bookended by a few years of rise/decline is basically best-case scenario for any other position, but for the most important player on the field that’s not good enough?

airedmania.bsky.social•13 days ago

Whole point of “hitting on a QB” is that he keeps your playoff/championship window open for 10 to 15 years.

Also, i think it’s just assumed that whatever a guy is at age 26, he’s probably going to be THAT at 29/30. And then its downhill from a physical/injury standpoint.

littleredwagon.bsky.social•13 days ago

I just don’t think that’s a realistic way to think about building a franchise. How many QBs have actually led the team that drafted them to multiple Super Bowls more than 5 years apart? A handful, mostly last century.

littleredwagon.bsky.social•13 days ago

Meanwhile the list of teams that have gone to multiple Super Bowls with different QBs within a 5 year span is just as long

airedmania.bsky.social•13 days ago

I didn’t say the logic is sound. Just saying this is how most evaluators think; age matters to them.

pruitigoe.bsky.social•13 days ago

You obviously have not crossed the 30 year old threshold yet and had your body laugh at you.

tk421d.bsky.social•13 days ago

Two Words, One Legend, Kurt Warner, he was the oldest QB rookie...

hobbesjosh.bsky.social•13 days ago

I don't think its obsession, as you might be implying. Just how players are viewed. An older player has a bigger body of work and therefore you know who they are and what you are going to get. A younger player doesn't have a complete body of work and they are being drafted on "potential"

bbqdotgov.bsky.social•13 days ago

It's actuarial. It's putting age and development arcs up against the NFL salary structure for that player's position, and then trying to calculate who'll get you the most production for the least amount of salary.

That's especially true of QBs because their rookie contracts are basically slotted.

publius64.bsky.social•12 days ago

i suspect if real analytics were solely used, the age bias would decrease significantly

seems like this is an old-school false premise from the days of drafting QBs that would ride the pine for a few years before "we develop them to run our system"

those days are long gone

courier429.bsky.social•13 days ago

My god astrology is out of control.

un5toppabl0.bsky.social•12 days ago

Only for like Chris Weinkie does age matter when drafting a QB 😂😂😂

baddaddypres.bsky.social•13 days ago

Not a QB here but momma always told me that age was just a number, just sayin'

hodag1977.bsky.social•13 days ago

I think the trend lately is to favor experience over youth - draft & develop is dying because teams & coaches need to win NOW! Teams want to plug guys in who can contribute right away.

rickgregory.me•13 days ago

Question: If a 25 year old guy has played in a college system that's not like NFL offenses can we still assume they are who they're going to be?

Say QB A is 21 when drafted. At 25 or 26 they'll have spent several years in the NFL getting coached up and seeing high level players.

rickgregory.me•13 days ago

Meanwhile QB B has been in college at a school that doesn't run NFL style offense. Couldn't we assume that QB B's skills will develop under good NFL coaching? And perhaps faster if they've seen more starts?

renegaderants.bsky.social•13 days ago

QBs take time to develop and GMs don’t want old legs hitting QBs by the time they are ready. Many see the risk of old legs as a bigger risk than a long development road with a younger less NFL-ready QB. If you are win-now you take the risk with age because you don’t need longevity in your older QB.

deanharwood.bsky.social•13 days ago

I believe the answer to that question is-Brandon Weeden.

clayp2233.bsky.social•13 days ago

Less room to grow, also you’re going to look better with that much experience.

sharpenyourchisels.bsky.social•11 days ago

I think this is a classic case of "looks decent as an older college player, but most of the development is done, and the negatives that show up in college get magnified."

That being said, does that mean he can't be a starter for a few years for a bad team, until they find a true solution? No.

sharpenyourchisels.bsky.social•11 days ago

He also, and I don't want to ding the guy too hard, looks afraid of taking a hit sometimes. Maybe that's not it, but if that is it... there will be multiple bad, panic throw INTs.

eaglestorm.bsky.social•13 days ago

It's so weird, considering most teams only want to keep players for four to five years anyway, and QBs can last a decade.

minakimes.bsky.social•13 days ago

Nate raised an interesting question here—if Tyler Shough (who we both like) was turning 22 instead of 26, how high would he go?

Interesting prospect given a few teams’ need for a plug and play QB.

adawg27.bsky.social•13 days ago

The issue isn't necessarily just the age with Tyler but the reason for what took him so long to get to the point he could be drafted. Lots of injuries and some inconsistent play, plus attending multiple schools. A guy his age, I don't think has ever come into the league and succeed.

patsfb.bsky.social•13 days ago

I still couldn't see him as a 1st round guy, but that sure would help
https://bsky.app/profile/patsfb.bsky.social/post/3lku2zrtj3k2d

captaindinosaur.bsky.social•13 days ago

*Chris Weinke flashbacks*

Noooooo!

daddyroundround.bsky.social•13 days ago

I had totally spaced how old Weeden actually was when he was drafted until Nate brought it up. If I had to make a bet, I'd have said 26.

seanmac31.bsky.social•13 days ago

He would probably be 1.1. 1.2 at worst.

berniecullen.bsky.social•13 days ago

Maturity should be an asset. This Eagles fan wants to say that you do a great job.

freedompimp2012.bsky.social•13 days ago

No lower than 2

jekyl.bsky.social•13 days ago

Anything or anyway(excuse) an owner can get a player cheap. 🤷😒

ashleigh.me•13 days ago

Interested to listen to this episode because I wonder if qb’s will want to play as long as they used to because they enter their second act while playing. (So I wonder if age should matter, really.)

clayp2233.bsky.social•13 days ago

He’d probably be a first rd pick but his stats including his qbr and completion percentage are unimpressive

wilhelmscreamin.bsky.social•13 days ago

So his rise was not Shoughing?

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply