Combined with a sharp collapse in borrowing, which was also all Republicans. In response to an increase in the price of goods, which was, you guessed it, Republicans. And we were unable to stop the collapse because of a decline in social trust, caused by... Republicans
COVID absolutely had everything to do with Trump, Him tossing the Pandemic Response Playbook and advocating for mass spread by trying to reopen verything in fucking march.
The US economy faired better than most during and following COVID. Whether this was the result of Trump’s actions is an open question (my view is Jay Powell deserves most credit).
You could argue that all governments globally were culpable because of their negligence and that trump was not as bad as others/idiosyncratic factors made America outperform, but I think that sets an unreasonably high bar of expectations.
Lmfao, you’re blaming the GFC on the admin out of office 7 years prior, and not the one that loosened banking regulations that directly led to the crash. Hilarious!
genuine question: despite uncertainty doesn't the promise of complete deregulation keep markets bullish? (i know nothing about econ so forgive me if this q is profoundly ignorant)
Targeted deregulation might do that, yes. But complete deregulation threatens some bedrock economic assumptions. For example, the FDIC is supposed to be an independent agency immune to presidential meddling; but now Trump claims he should have authority over it. Among other things, the FDIC 1/
obligations, can you trust that you'll actually be able to redeem your bonds? Suddenly that looks like a much riskier investment.
And of course, investor confidence in any given stock is based in large part around disclosure regulations enforced by the SEC. If there's no consequences for lying, 3/
no regulatory threat, maybe not even a criminal threat if they just bribe the DoJ - what confidence do you have that a company's quarterlies are trustworthy?
i guess i also have acquired conspiracy brain and assume that business interests are in for a penny in for a pound at this point and at least short term able to bolster quarterly reports enough to maintain the economic potemkin village
I mean, that's a reasonable question! I think 'deregulation' in these times is more like 'regulation by caprice and whimsy' which increases uncertainty!
This is what the techbros want. They want to destroy the entire country because they think that will make it easier to take over and remake it with them as our overlords. Trump is barely even President. He's just window dressing for the real endgame.
Yep. I agree with @umairh.bsky.social on what’s happening. His newsletter is not cheery but it’s the level of honesty we need about this “economy” after the idiotic fascists have their way with it.
Yes but if the true numbers are terrible and they publish pure bullshit, investors will eventually notice when companies start reporting their sales are way down.
Also, payroll companies will still publish their estimates so it might not even get to that point.
Yup. It'll end up like Hoover in 1929-30. Try to mask everything and sell roses. Doesn't matter bc people will eventually start feeling it. And yes, they'll turn on you.
The actual *cult* who walks around wearing red hats and putting dumbass stickers on gas pumps and shit, yeah idk. But that's probably a few million people. Most of the 80 million who voted for him aren't devout worshippers, if they're starving they'll turn on him imo
BLS are the best and most ethical in the business. I feel confident they will loudly resign if told to lie and then at least we will know the numbers are trash
Serious question - what do you do with long-term investments like 401(k) in an environment like this? Even government securities feel uncertain because who knows? Precious metals?
During the last economic recession the top 1.5% of wealth holders MADE MORE MONEY. How is it known that the Trump Admin isn't trying to tank the economy on purpose just to enrich the rich?
Disconnect between markets and public sentiment may be due to so much of the market being controlled by a small fraction of the public who know they do well in any case
I’ve seen some forecast misses on the economic calendar recently that the markets pretty much shrugged off. You could be right but I’m scratching my head at the disconnect.
well it's unavoidable, now. even if all federal workers went back to their posts, the stock market re-gained confidence, consumers would still save instead of spend. an average working joe is not buying anything. Nothing. new 2025 cars are sitting.
"we didn't think the leopards would eat OUR faces!"
With FOTUS and Leon destruction is assured. We are seeing Russia first. What happened to America first? Explain it to me as if I’m a 4 year old. This is yet another five alarm fire. The Congress sits impudent. How do they allow us to join the Axis? How?
when are people going to fucking figure out how recessions work and why they happen? it’s like every fucking time people are shocked when America trades their soul for tax cuts to the rich and gutting needed services for the 99%
like oh wow, we increased the national deficit a fuck ton because we let airlines and billionaires own our economy. we let their incompetence rule how we fund things and as a result, we have to make someone pay. oh, let’s fuck over the people who have nothing to do with this! PROBLEM SOLVED
once again, for the people in the back: when you give tax cuts, you have to balance the budget somewhere else. you’re not in the clear. a billionaire gets a yacht, a few hundred thousand people lose the right to live. it’s death economics.
Add in a little bird flu to go along with the newer strains of Covid, throw in some measles, and maybe a dose of polio. Do you think the billionaires have all the vaccines RFK Jr. is keeping from the rest of us?
No problem. Bonds are tricky. Basically in the article the author is saying that the bond market is acting like everything is just fine when it shouldn’t be.
Tell me again how the #GOP are supposed to be good for the economy? Seems to me that every time they get into office the whole thing goes downhill faster than a sled on ice.
Combine that with the consumer index at the pandemic levels, rising grocery prices, likely rising interest rates, increasing occurrences of different diseases, falling planes, trump/musk social divisions agitation and destruction of the government, Republicans' defunding Medicaid - it is all bad.
@kjephd.bsky.social I looked at the FRED website where this graph supposedly came from but it's not reflecting the same number shown. As of today at 8:02AM CST, data says 137.53. Where did you get the graph you shared? Not sticking up for the dictator, but do want to be factual.
I tried to pull the Feb 17 screenshot in Wayback and it just said "access denied". However, I decided to have it just show me Jan 1, 2021 to present and you can see that it's clearly getting worse.
It's interesting that the floor of the graph seems to be rising, no other previous time periods show this, they all return to a relatively consistent baseline.
I was able to create this graph using FRED's data tool, selecting "daily" and then setting the start date to 2000. It's pretty close to what's in the article, but not exactly the same; today's spike is lower than the financial crisis but very similar to COVID (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=uncertainty)
Awesome, thank you!! Now I'm going to look up that FRED chart and see what it said around the time the article came out. Maybe DOGE is messing with the data...
For the young-uns that may not remember 2009 all that well, it was quite scary; will I still have a job? Will my bank go under? Is my mortgage now under water?
This is a whole new level of scary. Will the rule of law matter? Will we still have a country?
How is it not on the way? It's hard to close military bases because it always has seismic impacts on the local economy where the base is located. But that is local. This is going to hit with the same impact all across the country. Good luck, car dealers of america.
No one could have imagined that 2 malignant narcissists with massive financial conflicts of interest and a soft spot for Nazis and Putin could roil the markets.
The plan is to crash the economy. N that's how you get people desperate enough to work for pennies so you can roll back worker protections and usher in a new GOLDEN AGE.
The Republican blueprint is Russian oligarchy: In the 1990s, Russia’s most profitable organisations were dismantled and taken over by tycoons able to take advantage of an increasingly compromised privatisation process and seize control of hugely profitable state enterprises.
Why does this surprise anyone? Elon promised a recession during the election. They've been projecting their intentions to crash everything. They want to cause panic and instate martial law.
It looks like maybe higher than far longer than since 2000? I don't remember crazy economic uncertainty in 2000. Sure the dot com bubble was bursting, but in 2000 we were talking about how to spend the budget surplus, tax cuts or social security lockbox. Different times.
“Republicans care and is be good at economy,” said the paid under the table janitor of a multimillionaire to his ex wife in an email that didn’t get sent because ya know “Obama Phone Problems”
Legitimately wondering what the purpose of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary is. When you show up wanting in a comparison to Steve Mnuchin and John Snow, you MIGHT not be up for the job.
Smells fishy or, “So, if you take, like, armpits, ketchup, makeup and a little butt, it’s probably like that, all mixed up.” - Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.bsky.social 😘
Comments
https://www.policyuncertainty.com/
1 - 2008 banking crisis at end of GOP Bush admin
2 - 2020 Covid crisis during last year of GOP Trump admin
3 - 2025 Government crisis created in first month of GOP Trump admin
See a pattern? It isn’t hard.
He had 1 qtr over 3%, later revised under 3, and it was driven by stockpiling inventories ahead of the tariffs. His term delivered around 2% GDP.
Covid had absolutely nothing to do with Trump.
Due to actions undertaken after Trump was gone.
Similarly, government bonds are considered a fairly low-risk investment - but with the Trump administration choosing not to meet other payment 2/
And of course, investor confidence in any given stock is based in large part around disclosure regulations enforced by the SEC. If there's no consequences for lying, 3/
fuck you face!
Amazing how people forget this clown lied about covid being deadly and then played golf and watched tv as the bodies piled up.
Also, payroll companies will still publish their estimates so it might not even get to that point.
Ultimately they can't hide it
Except idk if that's the case with this cult.
Get it trending.
"we didn't think the leopards would eat OUR faces!"
No starting to worry about a recession, be ready, it's coming. For sure.
We're not close to an oligarchy or fascism, we're here.
If we don't start calling things as they are, we're never going to unite well enough to fight them!
It's definitely time for caution and to have a plan.
Project 2025 is a rebrand of Steve Bannon's deconstruction of the administrative state on steroids.
They are destroying the safeguards to protect America from terrorism, the next pandemic, and a recession.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/30/politics/trump-bannon-administrative-state/index.html
[NOTE: I will immediately block any gold bug or crypto asshole who replies to any of my messages]
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditspread.asp
https://bsky.app/profile/kjephd.bsky.social/post/3lj4hzj5iis26
This is a whole new level of scary. Will the rule of law matter? Will we still have a country?
Markets are in denial and will remain in denial for a few more weeks.