Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization talks: Today saw a potentially significant development in the reports that the text of a long-awaited normalization agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been completed, according to an announcement by the Azerbaijani MFA, also confirmed by the Armenian MFA. - ThreadSky

laurencebroers.bsky.social • 71 days ago

Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization talks: Today saw a potentially significant development in the reports that the text of a long-awaited normalization agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been completed, according to an announcement by the Azerbaijani MFA, also confirmed by the Armenian MFA.

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laurencebroers.bsky.social•71 days ago

As so often is the case, there appears to be less to this than immediately meets the eye. What seems to have been agreed is the two sticking points in the normalization agreement that have been the focus of recent negotiations.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•71 days ago

These concern the presence of third-party forces along the Arm-Az border, i.e. the EU Mission in Armenia, and the legal cases at the ICJ & other international courts. It seems that Armenia has agreed to the withdrawal of both EUMA, perhaps after its current mandate ends, and the court cases.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•71 days ago

Azerbaijan continues to insist on revision of Armenia’s Constitution, although it seems possibly ‘in the next phase’ per AZ FM J. Bayramov, and on the formal dissolution of the Minsk Group: two already known and expected preconditions.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•71 days ago

But a referendum on constitutional change in Armenia won’t happen before 2026 and brings its own risks, especially if seen to be happening at Azerbaijan's behest (Armenian PM N. Pashinyan has been introducing an alternative rationale, but that's for another thread).

laurencebroers.bsky.social•71 days ago

Long-term observers of the process are sceptical. The most contentious issue, connectivity & corridors, is not included in the agreement. Another issue, highlighted by @olesyavart.bsky.social, is whether this announcement is enough to kick-start the moribund Turkish-Armenian normalization process.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•71 days ago

Meanwhile war propaganda continues in Azerbaijan, alleging Armenian plans for a springtime attack, as well as the retro-irredentism of the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse laying claim to the whole of Armenia.

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