Azerbaijan continues to insist on revision of Armenia’s Constitution, although it seems possibly ‘in the next phase’ per AZ FM J. Bayramov, and on the formal dissolution of the Minsk Group: two already known and expected preconditions.
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But a referendum on constitutional change in Armenia won’t happen before 2026 and brings its own risks, especially if seen to be happening at Azerbaijan's behest (Armenian PM N. Pashinyan has been introducing an alternative rationale, but that's for another thread).
Long-term observers of the process are sceptical. The most contentious issue, connectivity & corridors, is not included in the agreement. Another issue, highlighted by @olesyavart.bsky.social, is whether this announcement is enough to kick-start the moribund Turkish-Armenian normalization process.
Meanwhile war propaganda continues in Azerbaijan, alleging Armenian plans for a springtime attack, as well as the retro-irredentism of the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse laying claim to the whole of Armenia.
The extent to which such propaganda and the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse subsides in the event of a treaty signature would be a seminal test of that document’s prospects. No sign of that whatsoever yet.
It seems then that today’s announcement may be more about asserting ownership of the agreement in advance of major regional and global re-alignments that could see Russia reasserting its role as third-party mediator.
Establishing a new baseline for future talks that eclipses the Russian-mediated and co-signed Ceasefire Statement that ended the war in November 2020 might provide a guardrail against future re-insertions of Russian influence, and would validate the bilateral format that Baku prefers.
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