But a referendum on constitutional change in Armenia won’t happen before 2026 and brings its own risks, especially if seen to be happening at Azerbaijan's behest (Armenian PM N. Pashinyan has been introducing an alternative rationale, but that's for another thread). - ThreadSky

About ThreadSky

laurencebroers.bsky.social • 75 days ago

But a referendum on constitutional change in Armenia won’t happen before 2026 and brings its own risks, especially if seen to be happening at Azerbaijan's behest (Armenian PM N. Pashinyan has been introducing an alternative rationale, but that's for another thread).

Comments

laurencebroers.bsky.social•75 days ago

Long-term observers of the process are sceptical. The most contentious issue, connectivity & corridors, is not included in the agreement. Another issue, highlighted by @olesyavart.bsky.social, is whether this announcement is enough to kick-start the moribund Turkish-Armenian normalization process.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•75 days ago

Meanwhile war propaganda continues in Azerbaijan, alleging Armenian plans for a springtime attack, as well as the retro-irredentism of the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse laying claim to the whole of Armenia.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•75 days ago

The extent to which such propaganda and the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse subsides in the event of a treaty signature would be a seminal test of that document’s prospects. No sign of that whatsoever yet.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•75 days ago

It seems then that today’s announcement may be more about asserting ownership of the agreement in advance of major regional and global re-alignments that could see Russia reasserting its role as third-party mediator.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•75 days ago

Establishing a new baseline for future talks that eclipses the Russian-mediated and co-signed Ceasefire Statement that ended the war in November 2020 might provide a guardrail against future re-insertions of Russian influence, and would validate the bilateral format that Baku prefers.

laurencebroers.bsky.social•75 days ago

But this is about optics, not substance, as several major issues remain both divisive and unresolved, under conditions where the military asymmetry remains stark and deterrence extremely weak.

Posting Rules

Be respectful to others
No spam or self-promotion
Stay on topic
Follow Bluesky's terms of service

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply