Meanwhile war propaganda continues in Azerbaijan, alleging Armenian plans for a springtime attack, as well as the retro-irredentism of the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse laying claim to the whole of Armenia.
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The extent to which such propaganda and the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse subsides in the event of a treaty signature would be a seminal test of that document’s prospects. No sign of that whatsoever yet.
It seems then that today’s announcement may be more about asserting ownership of the agreement in advance of major regional and global re-alignments that could see Russia reasserting its role as third-party mediator.
Establishing a new baseline for future talks that eclipses the Russian-mediated and co-signed Ceasefire Statement that ended the war in November 2020 might provide a guardrail against future re-insertions of Russian influence, and would validate the bilateral format that Baku prefers.
But this is about optics, not substance, as several major issues remain both divisive and unresolved, under conditions where the military asymmetry remains stark and deterrence extremely weak.
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