It should not have come to this but @phillipspobrien.bsky.social is right. It is now time for Europe to begin standing on its own feet. It will be fascinating to see what Britain does. While #Macron tries to lead, will #Starmer try to keep kissing Trump’s backside? open.substack.com/pub/phillips... - ThreadSky

ianpkearns.bsky.social • 11 days ago

It should not have come to this but @phillipspobrien.bsky.social is right. It is now time for Europe to begin standing on its own feet. It will be fascinating to see what Britain does. While #Macron tries to lead, will #Starmer try to keep kissing Trump’s backside? https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update120-the-us-changes?selection=7979c5be-1230-47db-8919-2b19979e274c

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ianpkearns.bsky.social•11 days ago

After having worked in national security circles in the UK for more than two decades, I can say this with confidence: 1) The British security establishment has no plan, other than behaving like the problem doesn’t exist, for dealing with a breach in the relationship with the US.

ianpkearns.bsky.social•11 days ago

2) There is basically a vacuum in the Labour Party where a serious thinking through of the current geopolitical environment should be. That’s why, in the face of seismic developments, they still maintain the pathetic position that increases in defence spending can wait.

ianpkearns.bsky.social•11 days ago

3) The professional military-diplomatic core will tell everyone (including @phillipspobrien.bsky.social) that it is time for cool heads….Don’t do anything rash. Work with Trump where you can. In other words….. Nothing fundamental is happening. This will all blow over. We just need to ride it out.

ianpkearns.bsky.social•11 days ago

In the absence of any other policy, this latter position has huge attractions. But for it to be sustainable, we have to believe that Trump means nothing of what he says. Far more likely, we are witnessing the collapse of an eight decade strategy of national security dependence on the US.

ianpkearns.bsky.social•11 days ago

Lastly, anyone in academia, think tanks, or even inside the gov’t machine who advocates planning for a future without reliance on the US will be ignored and marginalised. Psychologically, the British pol-mil establishment is just not ready to acknowledge a new reality.

ianpkearns.bsky.social•11 days ago

In my view, unless Trump suddenly says, “only kidding”, we’re about to witness something very akin to state level nervous breakdown.

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