That’s a whole other ball of wax but I don’t think a different VP pick in 2020 (given who was on the table then, and maybe even outside the shortlist) would have made a meaningful difference given how the 2024 election (and its motivating factors) played out. Would Abrams, Bass, or Rice done better? - ThreadSky

gshans.bsky.social • 74 days ago

That’s a whole other ball of wax but I don’t think a different VP pick in 2020 (given who was on the table then, and maybe even outside the shortlist) would have made a meaningful difference given how the 2024 election (and its motivating factors) played out. Would Abrams, Bass, or Rice done better?

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andyhickner.bsky.social•74 days ago

The problem was the shortlist and the criteria used to develop whatever the shortlist was. But that’s Biden. A strategic thinker he is/was not, and apparently he didn’t like having any strategic thinkers around him either.

gshans.bsky.social•74 days ago

My own view is that the shortlist was a response to perceptions of what crucial elements of the base wanted. A sincere Q: who would have populated your shortlist?

I think Klain, among Biden's inner circle, has come off the best with hindsight, but largely agree that his team made big errors.

andyhickner.bsky.social•74 days ago

One of the biggest lessons of the past 9 years for me is that what “crucial elements” of the Democratic base want turns out not to be what swing voters on swing states want. So ideally I’d want someone who’d proven they could win a swing district or swing state.

andyhickner.bsky.social•74 days ago

Back in 2020 there wasn’t anyone in the presidential primary who fit that bill that I can think of, so it would have had to be someone flying under the radar. I was a Warren supporter in 2020, so I admit my own political judgement at the time was pretty bad!

gshans.bsky.social•74 days ago

I was also a Warren supporter! I think it’s tempting to think there was some preferable choice, but I’m not sure there was. And certainly as a heterogenous party, the choices always end up being signals to various constituent groups that their value is appreciated. Whether that’s sustainable… 🤷🏾‍♂️

gshans.bsky.social•74 days ago

Also, not sure there’s been many VP picks who we brought electoral advantages. Pence and Biden both did “balance the ticket” work, but beyond that it’s a head scratcher. On the failure side, I do think Walz was a smarter version of the Kaine choice (HRC should have gone with Julian Castro IMO).

andyhickner.bsky.social•74 days ago

No, they wouldn’t. None of those 4 should have been on the shortlist.

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