Trump has shuffled all intellectual cards so much that it would take some time until they get in order. Today I read an article arguing how US hugely & disproportionately benefits from the IMF & the World Bank (and trying to tell Trump not to withdraw from both). - ThreadSky

brankomilan.bsky.social • 10 days ago

Trump has shuffled all intellectual cards so much that it would take some time until they get in order.
Today I read an article arguing how US hugely & disproportionately benefits from the IMF & the World Bank (and trying to tell Trump not to withdraw from both).

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brankomilan.bsky.social•10 days ago

These were all totally correct arguments.
But if you told the author these same arguments 3 months ago, they would vehemently deny them & accuse you of conspiratorial thinking b/c, they would say, the international organizations bring equal benefits to all.

retepelyod.bsky.social•10 days ago

Branko

Also interesting to consider what happens if the US does leave.

IMF Articles require HQ to be in its largest member country, which would mean that IMF staff would have to decamp entirely to Beijing.

The Europeans already run the place, so that would change little. Bigger shock at IBRD.

brankomilan.bsky.social•10 days ago

Of course, all quotas will have to be rejigged. It would be a HUGE mistake for the US to leave the Fund.

theangelofhistory.bsky.social•8 days ago

For Trump the route to exit will be presumably to sell the US shares for China in return for redemption of a swathe of US government bonds owned by China “look how I reduced our debt”. Institutionally that would also function for formal recognition of China being the main member economy.

theangelofhistory.bsky.social•8 days ago

(I’d add it is much more likely the US quits the world bank than the imf)

brankomilan.bsky.social•8 days ago

US *paid-up* share in the IMF/WB is minimal.

theangelofhistory.bsky.social•8 days ago

The US has 17 per cent of the votes at the imf which gives it a veto over any proposal which requires 85 per cent approval (which is most of the important ones). China has slightly more than 6 per cent: China would the US shares in a New York minute, if it could.

brankomilan.bsky.social•10 days ago

Further, were the US to withdraw & then to come back, it would never get back the veto power that it currently has & that is the result of the Bretton Woods.

retepelyod.bsky.social•10 days ago

Yes, but Europeans would insist that the rejigging of quotas was proportionate, so no change in relative power or access for remainers, and, arguably given how limited the scope of US veto power actually is, little de facto change were the US to rejoin.

Interesting to think about US exit and NAB.

retepelyod.bsky.social•10 days ago

You are right about Japan, tho. I stand corrected.

brankomilan.bsky.social•10 days ago

The quotas would be changed proportionately. But nobody will hold the veto power. (I think you need 15% to veto and Japan has 6.47%, so they are very far.)

brankomilan.bsky.social•10 days ago

Japan is the 2nd largest shareholders in the IMF. So the Fund & the Bank would have to move to Tokyo. The Bank just announced a major further decentralization sending 1/3 of its Washington -based staff to regional field offices

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