Yeah, one could, just, imagine some niche applications where batteries are unsuitable but there E-fuels seem a better alternative. Just a little worse energy efficiency but much easier to handle and distribute.
But there will be plenty of hydrogen in industrial processes, chemicals, steel etc.
What do you see as alternatives for shipping?
Nuclear? Only for the very biggest ships. Batteries? Only for the shortest routes. Sails? Only the least time sensitive cargoes. E-fuels? Less energy efficient. Ammonia? Even less efficient. Biofuel? Not enough of it.
Maybe hydrogen could, just, work?
differentiate on hydrogen and e-fuels, the former is quite complicated in operational handling in the application, the latter, in particular in the form of e-methanol is a drop-in solution, also e-ammonia is way easier to implement
one can plan much, but if it leads to huge losses then most companies revise their plans. Exactly that happens with FCEV. There are 3-4 orders of magnitude more BEV sold, and this is based on fundamental reasons of the technology.
The author of the article above is absolutely not an expert and is very much an anti-hydrogen campaigner, trying to suggest there is no market for hydrogen anywhere, for anything - while lying openly about the numbers; eg hydrogen being 3.8m times less dense than natural gas https://bsky.app/profile/cyberwest.bsky.social/post/3lhogd4lcn22r
Hydrogen mobility is guaranteed, with trucks already mass produced in China, and India are heavily committed with three models available commercially. The issue is the cost of hydrogen and the slow process of building the refueling network https://bsky.app/profile/danielwilliams965.bsky.social/post/3lhoctqufjc2a
hydrogen will NOT be a main fuel for road vehicles. currently 3-4 orders of magnitude more BEV than FCEV are sold and this is due to fundamental technology reasons. In my team we have the paper with the highest H2 demand published ever https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.170 - still on the road there's no value add
Hydrogen mobility is guaranteed, with trucks already mass produced in China, and India are heavily committed with three models available commercially. The issue is the cost of hydrogen and the slow process of building the refueling network https://bsky.app/profile/danielwilliams965.bsky.social/post/3lhoctqufjc2a
The point is that by using the fuel for transport applications where it is already much cheaper than imported petroleum in many regions, you don't have to massively upgrade electricity grids to cope with on-off 100MW charging demand, and you can also use the fuel for everything else
So for example steel, cement, chemicals, glass, ceramics, long haul trucking, utility vehicles, aviation, shipping, peaker plants, data centres
Add to this improvements in fuel cell efficiency which will get to >70% (>60% today), and electrolyser efficiency which may operate continuously at 95%..
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But there will be plenty of hydrogen in industrial processes, chemicals, steel etc.
Nuclear? Only for the very biggest ships. Batteries? Only for the shortest routes. Sails? Only the least time sensitive cargoes. E-fuels? Less energy efficient. Ammonia? Even less efficient. Biofuel? Not enough of it.
Maybe hydrogen could, just, work?
So we will inevitable choose hydrogen, or a fuel that uses hydrogen.
But the price difference will make this uneconomic.
And for cars is essentially over by now.
Add to this improvements in fuel cell efficiency which will get to >70% (>60% today), and electrolyser efficiency which may operate continuously at 95%..
Considering we use about 120,000TWh in total energy globally today, this doesn't seem to fit
Most scenarios see 100,000TWh total energy demand (TFEC) by 2050
Hydrogen vehicle sales? Peaked and declining.