For many people, climate change is about stats and data. But firefighters see the change on the ground, almost in real time. The fires we fight now are nothing like those we fought 20 yrs ago. Many of the tactics I was trained in are now unviable.
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my Brother in NSWRFS had a similar situation in 2019, he was at home crying after a really bad day, and he basically said, we hazard burned that area just last week, and we got overrun! nothing we can do, how TF do we fight these now. after years in the RFS, the 2019 were to much for him.
There's research out there that shows that HR burns actually make the environment more susceptible to fires. Old growth with heavy ground fuels retain moisture. Burn it away, and (a) fuels return but (b) without the retained moisture. So the only solution is that once you burn, keep doing it.
I respected fire behaviour analyst told me (as a firefighter) that the quickest way to assess bushfire conditions is to look at creeks abc clouds. Dry creeks means very Lowe moisture in soil and fuels, billowing clouds means unstable atmosphere.
30 years ago HR was the done thing, that's what we were told. I have watched fires do some unexpected, dangerous and weird shit since then. I have no time for the brain dead who cannot admit climate change has a major impact on fire behaviour.
But for four days prior to Black Saturday, it had been over 40c and even hotter for the first time in Kinglake's recorded history than Melbourne (using local farmers and fire brigade weather data from 1912 on & my own WX data)
This had dried out the moist Kinglake forests and the forest floor.
But it took those days prior of extreme heat to dry the forest floor. So, yes, you want to try and hope that the forest floor remains moist.
Kinglake hadn't had a 'big fire' since 1939, but those four days prior dried out all the forest floor, all it took was one ember on a hot northerly wind.
In my first major fires, I watched a sheet of flame lick over horse paddocks - ie grass eat down to the ground - and come at us. I call HR burns 'theatre' now - just to show people that we're doing something.
As the massive Mountain Ash trees of Kinglake caught fire and collapsed across roads, other brigades could not get thru to assist, they too were trapped.
Aircraft could not fly because (a) visibility and (b) lack of oxygen in the atmosphere.
As the Kinglake & Kinglake West CFA had gone to - obviously - 'turned out' to the original call, they too became trapped, an we were left in Kinglake's township area without any CFA or firefighters.
We formed our own defacto fire brigade in 30 seconds. Local former SAS soldier, Mark Hildebrand "Captain" me, 2IC (as a trained CFA firefighter) and comms, Leigh Dunscombe watchman ... etc.
We saved a lot, including pub, police station and the fire station. And a few lives. We did watch though as some perished. We could not get through even under a fog spray.
It’s hard to get the message to people that one those days, we can’t get a truck to everyone. You can call 000 but that’s not a guarantee. But it’s the wrong time to suddenly learn those community education messages.
Those days are weird. No strategy or tactics are possible. Just protect what you can. I drove into Nerriga in 2019 about 30 minutes before the firestorm hit. Residents had evacuated to the pub so we had just one job - make sure that pub didn’t burn.
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Within minutes, the sun disappeared ... and then there was a roar as if one was at the Avalon Air Show as F-111s flew. (My pics -taken on auto).
An overburn (as you'd know) is when firefighters pre-burn around themselves, the truck etc, so when the main fire front arrives there is no fuel load.
The fire triangle.
fuel+heat+oxgen.
How do you remove 'heat' when it's 45.6c in the shade? You can't.
How do you remove oxygen from the atmosphere? You can't.
All you can do is life & asset protection.
Most of SA has about 50 to 60% of its annual rainfall…..
Had a small grass fire 4k away a couple weeks ago, plenty to CFS, sorted in no time…
The worst is yet to come..
This had dried out the moist Kinglake forests and the forest floor.
Kinglake hadn't had a 'big fire' since 1939, but those four days prior dried out all the forest floor, all it took was one ember on a hot northerly wind.
Lives first. Outbuildings, fences etc, if they go 'they go' on tank water. Then homes, on tank water and fire pumps.
Aircraft could not fly because (a) visibility and (b) lack of oxygen in the atmosphere.
But we found a solution.
We had nothing in Kinglake township that day except us and whatever we did.