To test this, we combine expert's campaign ratings with voter's political support for parties (propensity to vote, PTV) for 28 cntr & >270 parties surrounding the 2019 🇪🇺 European Parliament elections 🗳️.
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Do the effects of harsher campaigns on voters' political support depend on:
➡️ the number of competing parties in an election?
➡️ a party's ideological distance to the next closest competitor?
➡️ the presence of a viable alternative for a voter?
However,
4️⃣ Voters lend less political support to parties leading harsher campaigns when they have an at least equally attractive alternative to choose from!
Parties lose any “negativity bonus” among voters that are ideologically at least equally close to their competition.
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➡️ the number of competing parties in an election?
➡️ a party's ideological distance to the next closest competitor?
➡️ the presence of a viable alternative for a voter?
📊 Key findings 👇
Note: Model contains fixed effect + random slopes without other covariates.
Note: Previously negative baseline effects render positive after inclusion of covariates such as parties' euroskepticism.
4️⃣ Voters lend less political support to parties leading harsher campaigns when they have an at least equally attractive alternative to choose from!
Parties lose any “negativity bonus” among voters that are ideologically at least equally close to their competition.