I've been thinking about is Haghani's answer to your question about how to evaluate risk. His answer was less precise than I was expecting, but I suppose he confirms that there is no mathematical formula. You take in all the data you can get and then produce almost an impressionistic estimate.
I'd appreciate if people could retweet or share the above video as it is the first video on a new interviews channel - so may not do as well in the YouTube algorithm as my other content.
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