I've always wondered how good this type of forecasting can be. Do we have comparable predictions from 40 years ago (of course, older methodologies...) to see how well they performed?
Reminds me of an assumption that Michael Kremer found confirmed in one or two of his papers on the empirics of economic growth: all individuals have the same probability of having a productive idea. (-> population growth drives productivity)
Today, Africa is home to 1.5 billion people. By 2070, the UN expects this number to more than double. Its estimates range from 2.7 billion to 3.7 billion, with the most likely scenario placing the African population around 3.2 billion.
This region is where most of the growth in the world population will occur in the next 50 years.
Europe’s population is already shrinking, with Asia and Latin America expected to follow from the 2050s onwards. The UN expects North America’s population to grow, although much slower than Africa's.
This seems unlikely, given that so much of Africa will be uninhabitable by 2070. What assumptions is the UN making about climate change? Not sure it's responsible to share this without context.
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Europe’s population is already shrinking, with Asia and Latin America expected to follow from the 2050s onwards. The UN expects North America’s population to grow, although much slower than Africa's.