In most places in the world, power from new renewables is now cheaper than power from new fossil fuels. Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? The answer: learning curves. - ThreadSky

ourworldindata.org • 84 days ago

In most places in the world, power from new renewables is now cheaper than power from new fossil fuels.

Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

The answer: learning curves.

Comments

drpaulitious.bsky.social•84 days ago

What puzzles me: why nuclear in UK seems to have a negative learning curve. They seem to want to try a new design every time rather than refine existing ones.

felix.ink•84 days ago

I read this article : https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/nuclear-power-and-net-zero-too-little-too-late-too-expensive when I was looking into it, it seems like the designs, excluding Russia or China, are all pretty ancient and terrible, or new designs take so long to be designed that we'd be waiting forever on it.

felix.ink•84 days ago

This is probably one big roadblock "EDF plans to build six EPR-2s in France, the first coming online in 2035-37. EDF has said it would not try to sell the design until one was operating in France. If we must wait till the after 2035 for it to be available, EPR-2s cannot be online in the UK by 2050."

felix.ink•84 days ago

And there aren't any great alternatives: "Assuming designs from Russia and China are not acceptable, that leaves us with the other two designs meant to make up the Blair programme of 16 GW by 2030, the Hitachi-GE ABWR and the Westinghouse AP1000."

felix.ink•84 days ago

"While these have been approved by the UK safety regulator, they are not attractive. The three reactors of the ABWR design operating in Japan use a 1986 version of it."

"The record of the AP1000 is almost as bad as that of the EPR with all eight orders going badly wrong."

felix.ink•84 days ago

"The other candidate is the South Korean APR1400, using a design that did not take account of the lessons from the Chernobyl disaster (a means of preventing a molten core getting into the environment) or from the 9/11 attack (a need to toughen the shell enough to absorb a hit by an aircraft)."

philipjdixon.bsky.social•84 days ago

This is also my impression

stefankuehnle.bsky.social•84 days ago

So 2019 was 0.3$? and now ~$0.18?

So the main cost is now installation.

philipjdixon.bsky.social•84 days ago

Absolutely

bsky.heenan.net•84 days ago

jillbelch.bsky.social•68 days ago

If they are still around….

bsky.heenan.net•68 days ago

That possibility cannot be excluded.
Though the chances are getting slimmer ...

jillbelch.bsky.social•67 days ago

Sadly true

katieal.bsky.social•73 days ago

Yes,.. AND child labour and slave labour prices for the minerals in supply chains which don’t pay for land ad they deforest rainforest in the Congo in their desperate need to survive on the pittance prices we have not ensured better than up those supply chains.

botobeal.bsky.social•84 days ago

So, price of the available power is now upper than the one of the unavailable power which requires available power for back-up.

botobeal.bsky.social•84 days ago

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-weak-winds-trigger-record-surge-gas-fired-power-maguire-2024-12-04/

aloa5.bsky.social•84 days ago

Just imagine what the price would look like, if we´d rely on (russian) gas last years instead of cheap green energy during wind/sun-seasons/days.

ourworldindata.org•84 days ago

For renewables and other technologies that follow learning curves, with each doubling of the cumulative installed capacity their price declines by the same fraction.

The price of electricity from fossil fuels, however, does not follow learning curves.

ourworldindata.org•84 days ago

This means we should expect that the price difference between expensive fossil fuels and cheap renewables will become even larger in the future.

ourworldindata.org•84 days ago

Learn more: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth

ourworldindata.org•84 days ago

See the interactive version of this chart with data through 2023 here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity

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