Here’s how many traditional “good hits” you can expect from 10 or 100 splits. Each number is based on 100,000 separate simulations. 2/9 - ThreadSky

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laurenwhatevs.bsky.social • 7 days ago

Here’s how many traditional “good hits” you can expect from 10 or 100 splits.

Each number is based on 100,000 separate simulations.

2/9

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laurenwhatevs.bsky.social•7 days ago

Here's how many splits you’ll need on average for your FIRST hit.

Again, 100k sims for each number.

Bottom two are new.

This is why we NEED targeting. I’d love a Storm/Storm Valk, but there’s no way in hell I’m doing hundreds more splits for that.

3/9

laurenwhatevs.bsky.social•7 days ago

Granted: I’m not using dupe protection in these sims except to enforce 1,215 as the max number.

That shouldn’t make a big difference for the top five rows, but would *probably* be meaningful for the bottom two.

4/9

laurenwhatevs.bsky.social•7 days ago

Here’s the whole gigantic table, including updated rates for Mastery v1 for the sake of comparison.

Tap and hold to load in 4k… or you can just view them online.

5/9

laurenwhatevs.bsky.social•7 days ago

If you compare these side-by-side with the numbers I posted 4 days ago, you might notice they’re REALLY different. There are two major reasons for that:

1) The rates actually changed
2) I have better understanding of how the rates work

6/9

laurenwhatevs.bsky.social•7 days ago

Actual changes:

• Banana rates halved
• Rays and Embers grouped
• Rarity weights changed

7/9

laurenwhatevs.bsky.social•7 days ago

The public rates are TOUGH to decipher, and I understand them better:

• Tone, Glimmer, Stardust, and Krackle are probably grouped
• I previously thought the public rates represented your odds AFTER the protection roll; now I think the protection roll is baked in

8/9

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