In the short term our best card is no longer the strength of American deterrence but Russian weakness- it’s militarily and economically exhausted. But at the same time Putin may never have a moment better suited to achieve his aims nor a US administration more pliant. - ThreadSky

lewisgoodall.com • 2 days ago

In the short term our best card is no longer the strength of American deterrence but Russian weakness- it’s militarily and economically exhausted. But at the same time Putin may never have a moment better suited to achieve his aims nor a US administration more pliant.

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trevor-greetham.bsky.social•2 days ago

The US has Putin’s back.

aphexgwyn.bsky.social•2 days ago

What's to say that Trump won't aid Russia financially to help improve their lot? He's already talking about lifting sanctions. He's a Kremlin agent.

judeet44.bsky.social•2 days ago

I agree...we should expect the worst and plan accordingly. Anything is possible now.

craigf-m.bsky.social•1 day ago

Severely depleted Russian troops, a lack of materiel, and a crippled economy are what Europe will hope can get us through the next four years until a change of US president.

bardolino.bsky.social•2 days ago

A realistic possibility now is that Putin offers Tr*mp mineral rights in occupied Ukraine. US security contractors e.g. Academi are sent 'in force' to 'protect' the extraction sites thereby effectively providing Putin with an American shield against Ukraine retaking Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

dompates.bsky.social•2 days ago

And the most concerning line of thinking to go down is what if a) UK/Europe gets its act together and goes all in on Ukraine, then b) the US sides with and props up the ailing Russian army, ending up attacking Europe?

duncanjonesmerrion.bsky.social•2 days ago

Precisely this. Right now Russia is weak and we need to redouble the sanction enforcement and just give all the frozen assets to Ukraine.

If we allow them to reinstate their economy and therefore their military this will go very bad.

paddlepower.bsky.social•2 days ago

Thankfully Russian corruption and Ukrainian defence has decimated the Russian war machine. We have a two-three year breathing space before Russia could rearm and move on major European nations. Europe should use that advantage to supply the Ukrainian forces with what they need.

gmlidington.bsky.social•2 days ago

*complicit

peletonplodder.bsky.social•2 days ago

A very real question is if we were to prosecute Russia’s weakness would the USA lend their resources to defend Russia? Would Trump give Putin the security guarantees he won’t give Ukraine.

discofornow.bsky.social•2 days ago

We must get into Ukraine NOW - kick russia out of there. Blitz them before the timer runs out, which could be weeks, not months. Hit now, hit hard. Get Ukraine into the EU extremely fast-tracke & kick out Hungary. UK needs to support EU. Do major deals with China - anything but giving Taiwan up.

nellyfriday.bsky.social•2 days ago

We're not playing cards, Mr Goodall. This is very serious.

adrianbbonnie.bsky.social•1 day ago

Europe on a war footing would walk all over Russia.

magastor.bsky.social•1 day ago

It would certainly eliminate any anxieties about climate change .

andypandini.bsky.social•2 days ago

Lewis, do you think there's a chance that the USA could sell/give arms to Russia?

msandraknowles.bsky.social•2 days ago

That's what I am worried about.

dancrane.bsky.social•2 days ago

And a United Europe is the only way to suppress any attempts Baddie Vladdie had to extend those aims. The UK and the EU need to be on the same page and not piss about like they have done.

kosmikllama.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think we should push to get all Dems to skip Trump’s speech on Tuesday in protest. Can you help get this thread started if you agree? Why show respect to a man who doesn’t respect the Constitution, the American people, our allies, democracy or the office he holds?

aralski.bsky.social•2 days ago

Not only is its military exhausted but it has shown itself to be third rate at best and will likely have little to no chance against a combined Western European military in a conventional conflict.

ivanj.bsky.social•2 days ago

“indifferent if not” has surely gone out the window?

mrdissent.bsky.social•1 day ago

Europe needs to step up. A great first step would be a minerals deal.

charleshedley.bsky.social•2 days ago

Just so long as the US doesn't start actively helping Russia.

vikingdelta.bsky.social•2 days ago

The idea that Putin will move further into Europe seems very far fetched and is bordering on fear mongering, but European countries need to increase their defence spending regardless. Outside of treaties, there is a limit to how much the US (and Europe) should involve themselves in a proxy war.

vikingdelta.bsky.social•2 days ago

Trump and America First is clearly not helpful to European security, but there are parallels to Vietnam in the Ukraine conflict. Besides, the US is and should focus on China, whilst Europe should be able to handle Russia by themselves - they are obvs no threat in terms of ground capabilities ongoing

monkeymanmiggins.bsky.social•2 days ago

For me this pliability could range from simple indifference, to actually frustrating our ability to protect ourselves. If the later happens we need to remove American influence from our security services VERY QUICKLY.

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