Thread: What does a coach do? Can we see the fingerprints of a coach on their playing style data? Let's use Oval Insights data to find out! 1) - ThreadSky

samlstandsup.bsky.social • 55 days ago

Thread: What does a coach do?

Can we see the fingerprints of a coach on their playing style data? Let's use Oval Insights data to find out!

1)

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samlstandsup.bsky.social•55 days ago

Stuart Lancaster and Michael Cheika are both new (newish) to the roles of head coach of Racing92 and Leicester Tigers respectively. But have they changed the way either of their teams play?

If so, how would we calculate that?

2)

samlstandsup.bsky.social•55 days ago

My preferred options are two self-created stats called Possession Obsession & Defensive Urgency

Possession Obsession: Total Carries - Kicks (imo better than total carries alone as it would downgrade teams who generate a lot of carries through kick returns and then kick it back.

3)

samlstandsup.bsky.social•55 days ago

Defensive Urgency: How many jackal turnovers + jackal penalties + ruck penalties conceded do a team make per defensive possession? How urgently do they want the ball back versus being happy to wait for it to be kicked to them.

4)

samlstandsup.bsky.social•55 days ago

This doesn't give us everything, of course a team might kick 20 times a match but all long versus 20 times a match and all little attacking dinks. But it gives us a good starting point for measuring how teams both attack and defend.

So what can we see?

5)

samlstandsup.bsky.social•55 days ago

Let's start with Cheika. On the left is a graph showing how Leicester ranked in the three pre-Cheika years. They were the lowest possession obsessed team - just 65.8 and below average for defensive urgency - 0.11.

They were a successful team of course in that period.

6)

samlstandsup.bsky.social•55 days ago

But move on to the Cheika year(s) and that has changed significantly. Their possession score has leapt to 100.8 a 53% increase and their defensive urgency has risen to 0.19 - a 73% increase.

It's useful to look at their score relative to the league average.

7)

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