"Hypothesis: The version of H5N1 circulating in the U.S., the 2.3.4.4b clade, is inherently less dangerous to people" ADD: - farmworkers are healthy & fit young men - constantly #H5N1 exposure will develop an immunity wall - when the wall collapses all of society gets hit hard - ThreadSky

realitycheckmarker.bsky.social • 88 days ago

"Hypothesis: The version of H5N1 circulating in the U.S., the 2.3.4.4b clade, is inherently less dangerous to people"
ADD:
- farmworkers are healthy & fit young men
- constantly #H5N1 exposure will develop an immunity wall
- when the wall collapses all of society gets hit hard

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rf2048.bsky.social•88 days ago

Also note that Spanish flu (another avian flu) hit young/fit people the hardest, so we would expect to see more severe infections in farmworkers first.

realitycheckmarker.bsky.social•88 days ago

The origins of the Spanish Flu was not Spain.

Many suggest the Spanish Flu originated in swine farms in the US and "once the wall of immunity broke" then it hit everyone else really hard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#United_States

rf2048.bsky.social•88 days ago

Right, I wasn’t talking about the origins, but rather the severity by age group

realitycheckmarker.bsky.social•88 days ago

We were not attempting to minimize the damage. There will be extensive death and disability once the wall collapses.
https://bsky.app/profile/realitycheckmarker.bsky.social/post/3lcdtq7yv3c2b

rf2048.bsky.social•88 days ago

There are certainly a lot of unknowns. I think the only certainty is that it won’t be identical to Covid. It’s likely that the severity and spread and subsequent immunity will be significantly different whether it’s lower or higher.

realitycheckmarker.bsky.social•88 days ago

Correct. There will be multiple waves but each of those will be penetrating parts of society where #TexasMooFlu had not reached earlier.

SARS-CoV is not just a flu.
Surprise twist, the flu is also not just the flu.

rf2048.bsky.social•88 days ago

Why would the wall collapse?

realitycheckmarker.bsky.social•88 days ago

The wall is the thin layer of immunity around farms, like a wall in a dam.

That immunity itself doesn't fall, so much as the wall can no longer hold back the pressure. How the pressure builds is increased contacts with the virus allowing human-to-human transmission.

Does this answer your query?

rf2048.bsky.social•88 days ago

Makes sense, I realize you’re referring to a different type of wall than I was thinking about.

realitycheckmarker.bsky.social•88 days ago

We have 150 years of novel influenza pandemic knowledge that HCWs are going to be disproportionally flattened. It'll be the canary in the mine, for whichever nation suddenly starts having #TexasMooFlu cases.

blocksincoming.bsky.social•86 days ago

Immunity wall is nonsense. Everyone infected has a first infection. Why are those not serious? Don't handwave them away, that is circular logic.

realitycheckmarker.bsky.social•86 days ago

We're trying hard to see where bleeding from the eyes was suggested to be "not serious"?

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