I'm optimistic that EVs can avoid contributing to the problem via smart charging, but they don't have sufficient storage capacity to contribute to the solution.
Agreed, I don't see EV owners being ok with their state of charge declining over consecutive days. Fine for within-day flex but irrelevant for the multi day intermittency of wind. We have industry spokespeople saying V2G is the soln for d'flaute. We need to be open about the need for dispatchability
Actually I think we can leverage EVs to displace *some* stationary storage in terms of lithium batteries. The problem is lithium batteries are unlikely to ever achieve costs which make the seasonal storage for dunkelflautes feasible. Smart charging doesn't degrade the battery like V2G.
Overbuilding renewables to meet demand during lower levels of production, paired pairs with 4-8 hours of storage would be my solution (stolen from Tony Seba).
You may have better numbers, but my napkin math tells me that vehicle to grid will put 50kWh at every residential meter, much more at comercial meters with charging at work.
Yes but that 50 kWh has a purpose: it's required to be available for mobility. You can't tie it up for a week without wind. You could probably pull 10% of it out over a single evening then charge to 100% that same night
Yeah agreed this is the issue. The dunkelflautes is about the likely coincidence of a drop in short term supply alongside the highest demand period. Seasonal is the only option.
There is an enormous difference in what we need to do if we are satisfied that a ~3/4 reduction is good enough, or do we actually need real net0?
And sure, a bunch of the 3/4 (or 'default plan') stuff is needed for both, so let's fo them, but the difference is largely long lead elements..
I think we need real net zero or be willing to pay the cost of CDR to hit it. I bet CDR is not cost effective in the electricity sector long run, but it depends on all those uncertainties we love to debate 😅
I do to, and that's why I get frustrated with 'ok will just do more of the 3/4's apptoach' approaches.
Actual net0 is gonna take as long as it takes to build out all those long lead time things.
I also agree CDR is only going to be the backstop for a few % of the issue.
We are not optimising even the current level of renewables because we have essentially no storage, and transmission and distribution problems - as you know.
Integrating more renewables is essential, but hard on the UK grid because of our poor planning.
Yes but so much of the problem has to do with electrified heat and it's still early days on that.
I do think they can be managed but I think we have to be a bit realer about how difficult a problem it is, and the sort of evidence we need (i.e. LOLE modeling).
They considered different storage tech for different purposes, see attached image. But for a anticyclonic gloom of a few weeks, they estimate (based on 40 yrs of weather data) UK needs 100 TWh of storage, and we probably cannot do that with batteries of any kind.
Iron-air batteries don't fit into any of the categories listed there and are designed to have economic characteristics which make sub-$10/kWh (USD) costs possible. But I otherwise completely agree with that analysis. Check out Form Energy.
As long as we remember to use the same ‘it’s early days’ logic we apply to growing demand of electrification (heating for instance) - as we do to the deployment and development of renewable capacity, storage, transmission, and evolved utilization of existing harder resources, then we’re cool.
It’s not a big deal & no need for hysteria. The tonnes of CO2 emitted by the gas back up post 2030 will be covered by the CO2 captured by the biomethane industry
Gas grid, gas storage, gas generation plant (updated with low load factor plant) is the only credible Big D option. Everyone knows that
CO2 produced in the AD as part of the biomethane production process will be sequestered in depleted gas fields
The overall project removes fossil CO2 from the atmosphere &
a farm becomes the most efficient way to harvest the fossil CO2 released in the last 300 years
I'm a techno-optimist, I apply that logic to anything. Absolutely think this problem is manageable, but gonna be complicated on demand and supply side and we should acknowledge that.
No but this is, week 47 was in the EU top 6 of weeks that produced the most wind power ever with 14TWh.
And even the Dunkelflaute week 45 had higher renewable share than the average for 2018.
Btw, no black-outs happened during those DF weeks, that should alleviate concerns...
I'm not saying renewables aren't good I'm just saying dunkelflautes are the big challenge. I just like discussing it! It's a huge problem in Canada for electrified space heating.
No worries, I share the same interest, adding some information.
Canada is a whole different grid, but massive hydro and geographical spread should alleviate DF risks. Grid needs to keep pace, I guess.
No meaningful level of east-west transmission though, so reservoirs only useful within provinces. Even then, expensive to build the extra turbine capacity. Canadian prairies have -45 degree cold snaps. It's the demand side more than the supply side that's the issue.
Yes, your scale is both an asset and a challenge, as is the continental climate.
Scandinavia performs well with Heat-pumps backed-up with solid biofuels (on top of good insulation), I guess similar patterns are visible on your side?
Good insulation is a problem in Canada given historically low energy prices. Even then, retrofits make little sense. Scandinavia has MUCh gentler winters, even relative to the Toronto area (where 1 in 6 Canadian live). Yes biomass backup for peak day is an option, or some kind of biogas/offsets.
Comments
At average car mileage per day of ~18 in the UK multiple day declines is not a technical issue and if the reward is right many people will flex.
And sure, a bunch of the 3/4 (or 'default plan') stuff is needed for both, so let's fo them, but the difference is largely long lead elements..
Actual net0 is gonna take as long as it takes to build out all those long lead time things.
I also agree CDR is only going to be the backstop for a few % of the issue.
Integrating more renewables is essential, but hard on the UK grid because of our poor planning.
I do think they can be managed but I think we have to be a bit realer about how difficult a problem it is, and the sort of evidence we need (i.e. LOLE modeling).
Gas grid, gas storage, gas generation plant (updated with low load factor plant) is the only credible Big D option. Everyone knows that
The overall project removes fossil CO2 from the atmosphere &
a farm becomes the most efficient way to harvest the fossil CO2 released in the last 300 years
And even the Dunkelflaute week 45 had higher renewable share than the average for 2018.
Btw, no black-outs happened during those DF weeks, that should alleviate concerns...
Canada is a whole different grid, but massive hydro and geographical spread should alleviate DF risks. Grid needs to keep pace, I guess.
Scandinavia performs well with Heat-pumps backed-up with solid biofuels (on top of good insulation), I guess similar patterns are visible on your side?