Oh huh Wow someone should appoint me DNI apparently - ThreadSky

mikeblack114.bsky.social • 6 days ago

Oh huh

Wow someone should appoint me DNI apparently

Reminder that the Iranians (for whatever it's worth) stated they'd already moved their fissile material to undeclared sites a couple weeks ago

Comments

pygalge.bsky.social•6 days ago

Iran probably dispersed their nuclear material immediately after the first round of Israeli strikes. Possibly sooner, given their general paranoia.
Israel has probably kept their own nukes dispersed since the days of the Six-day War.

sebastianbae.bsky.social•6 days ago

The bar is admittedly pretty low these days. Was the DNI even invited to the meeting 😂

soonermedic72.bsky.social•6 days ago

Maybe she was, but showed up in her “No War With Iran” merch and got booted out.

pitthewelder.bsky.social•6 days ago

I wouldn't be surprised if a nuclear weapon, of the dirty variety, was already on its way to the USA. Perhaps in a modified container that is programmed to trigger by a phone call once time reaches its correct coordinates. Putin would be happy to help , perhaps that is why Iran is now in Russia?

lowrhoufo.bsky.social•6 days ago

The funniest thing people are underestimating: they did similar things with enough centrifuges to sprint to ~90% and presumably have conversion options

davidjorgonson.bsky.social•6 days ago

60% to 90% sounds like a lot, even though it's less than doubling the concentration
People might not realize how much spinning has already been done relative to the smaller amount left to do

lowrhoufo.bsky.social•6 days ago

There's an analogy here to 20 questions. If you can only ask yes/no questions, you want each one to be really close to 50/50. The same works with refinement. Getting to 10% is hard. Getting above 90% is hard, but if you're at 60%, getting to 90% is piss easy

persistentpoasting.bsky.social•6 days ago

The other question to ask is that given the amount of pressure that the regime is under. And it's apparent lack of conventional means to deter that aggression.

Do you even bother going that last bit?

lowrhoufo.bsky.social•6 days ago

(I wonder what 2 pits worth are worth to Erdogan)

persistentpoasting.bsky.social•6 days ago

Not a lot imho.

You aren't gonna achieve a viable deterrent with 2 weapons, and the backlash isn't worth it over 2 weapons.

Give him the plans for the centrifuges though and you might be in business.

lowrhoufo.bsky.social•6 days ago

I think this might be like crack for @segyges.bsky.social and I'm sorry for not being a chemical engineer

segyges.bsky.social•6 days ago

i mean i'm likely to just think of it as bits. how many bits of information are you sifting at each stage. or equivalently doublings, right? you start with uranium compounds of mostly the wrong isotope and you are basically doing successive doublings at each stage

segyges.bsky.social•6 days ago

stages are getting it off its oxygen, and sifting it for the isotopes you want. so really two, but probably a couple steps in each one

and 60% and 90% are right next to each other on log 2 scale

lowrhoufo.bsky.social•6 days ago

That's 100% my mental model. Each centrifuge is so isotropic that you can basically break it down to information theory

chicagomike.bsky.social•6 days ago

But would they listen to you?

mikeblack114.bsky.social•6 days ago

Oh, this is the royal They

pegdif58.bsky.social•6 days ago

Yes they did

mikeblack114.bsky.social•6 days ago

The trick to having takes that age well is to read the news and have more than 2 brain cells to rub together

https://bsky.app/profile/mikeblack114.bsky.social/post/3ls5sfzmup22j

sagsefid.bsky.social•6 days ago

Lost me at "read", Mike.

bigsteven.bsky.social•6 days ago

…okay…guessing they’re walking back the “destroyed” narrative.

voteymcvoteface.bsky.social•6 days ago

concepts of obliteration would be a hell of an album name

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