I feel like one better-than-internal-forecasting platform, very soon, would be a system that uses AI forecasts but allows individuals to give opinions+information. The AI forecasts would respond accordingly. People could then be provided with a score for how valuable the information is. - ThreadSky

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ozziegooen.bsky.social • 96 days ago

I feel like one better-than-internal-forecasting platform, very soon, would be a system that uses AI forecasts but allows individuals to give opinions+information. The AI forecasts would respond accordingly. People could then be provided with a score for how valuable the information is.

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sylvainchevalier.bsky.social•96 days ago

That implies that synthesis is easier than retrieval, right? Seems plausible but not obvious to me.

ozziegooen.bsky.social•96 days ago

My main point is that the value of "getting information from people in an organization" is often more about retrieval than synthesis, for a broad definitely of retrieval. You can often do the synthesis in one cluster, either with a few humans or with AI.

ozziegooen.bsky.social•96 days ago

I think there's often a stronger case for decentralizing retrieval than synthesis, as information is often spread out throughout an organization.

ozziegooen.bsky.social•96 days ago

If you wait long enough (after the events happen), you could go back and update estimates of impact - so that people who gave the most useful information in support of the event that actually happened get extra rewarded, or something.

roman.technology•96 days ago

Cool idea. Wouldn’t you have to give a negative reward to users who supplied information that made the AI’s forecast less accurate? Otherwise people could exploit the system by submitting opposing pieces of information on different accounts.

ozziegooen.bsky.social•96 days ago

It's complicated. You'd want to give negative reward to opinion-heavy content that's proved false. You'd still probably want to give positive rewards for people who gave objective stats that just happened to promote the wrong view, if it seems like the direction was unintentional.

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