NEW | Rwanda-backed M23 has advanced toward Bukavu, the South Kivu provincial capital. M23 has continued its eastern DRC offensive despite the DRC's & Rwanda's agreement to regional proposals for a ceasefire, bilateral peace talks, and direct negotiations between the DRC & M23🧵 - ThreadSky

criticalthreats.bsky.social • 8 days ago

NEW | Rwanda-backed M23 has advanced toward Bukavu, the South Kivu provincial capital.

M23 has continued its eastern DRC offensive despite the DRC's & Rwanda's agreement to regional proposals for a ceasefire, bilateral peace talks, and direct negotiations between the DRC & M23🧵

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criticalthreats.bsky.social•8 days ago

M23 threatened on February 11 to attack Bukavu to “eradicate the threat” posed by pro-DRC forces & captured the district capital Kalehe on February 12.

M23 advanced within 20 miles of Kavumu, the last major pro-DRC military position 20 miles north of Bukavu, on February 13.

criticalthreats.bsky.social•8 days ago

The DRC's agreement to resume dialogue with M23 following the February EAC-SADC summit is a major concession by the Congolese government.

The DRC is unlikely to accede to M23's and Rwanda’s maximalist demands, however, which means that fighting will likely continue.

africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

Are you sure that is what the DRC agreed? They agreed to resume negotiations with armed groups through a previous process that I believe excluded the M23. But if they have agreed to negotiations with M23 that is indeed a major concession.

criticalthreats.bsky.social•8 days ago

M23 and Rwanda likely aim to secure an agreement that legitimizes M23’s control of Goma and parts of the eastern DRC.

DRC President Félix Tshisekedi is unlikely to follow through on such a deal because it would severely undermine his legitimacy and power base in Kinshasa.

africatakes.bsky.social•8 days ago

I am less convinced of this. I don’t think Rwanda believes it is realistic that it can hold Goma indefinitely, but it likely hopes that it can get the DRC to drop any claims to possible oil deposits in Lake Kivu, they also probably want political and economics concessions to M23 leadership

criticalthreats.bsky.social•8 days ago

CTP continues to assess that M23, Rwanda, and pro-DRC forces will use any ceasefire to reconstitute and set conditions for future offensives as they have regularly done for years.

criticalthreats.bsky.social•8 days ago

Read this week's full update, which also covers the SAF's latest moves in Khartoum and SAF negotiations with Russia for a Russian naval base as well as Turkey's growing defense partnerships in West Africa: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-february-13-2025-saf-announces-government-plan-and-russian-naval-base-drc-concedes-to-direct-talks-with-m23-turkeys-growing-defense-partnerships-in-africa#DRC

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