I think trans issues are to an extent being set up to take the fall for Democrats’ struggles when it seems like questionable judgment elsewhere (notably climate & immigration) was a much bigger deal. www.slowboring.com/p/another-po... - ThreadSky

mattyglesias.bsky.social • 97 days ago

I think trans issues are to an extent being set up to take the fall for Democrats’ struggles when it seems like questionable judgment elsewhere (notably climate & immigration) was a much bigger deal.

https://www.slowboring.com/p/another-post-election-mailbag

Comments

alkali19.bsky.social•97 days ago

Not sure the IRA's climate spending had any material adverse impact on inflation or interest rates — as noted commentator Matt Yglesias used to point out, inflation went down substantially after the IRA was passed

agadi.bsky.social•97 days ago

A lot of that has to do with energy prices going down due to the expiration of the 2020 OPEC deal. And inflation did go down, but it could have gone down a little more if there was no stimulus.

alkali19.bsky.social•97 days ago

Yglesias was being sly when he noted that inflation went down post-IRA — he meant Dems should take credit, deserved or not. But I doubt IRA was responsible for more than 0.1% of CPI movement; it was a very cheap trade for the climate benefit. Plus building alternative energy is anti-inflationary.

fdrobovelt.bsky.social•97 days ago

I don't think it was a prime mover issue, but I think it's background radiation that makes more people think Dems are the out of touch/weird ones.

thestinkfoot.bsky.social•97 days ago

Winning elections is about moving the policy-ball forward, and climate change is a very important policy for Democratic voters and, in fact, the climate. Maybe you could point to some technical flaws, but "it's better to just do nothing because maybe you'd have won" is bad politics.

thestinkfoot.bsky.social•97 days ago

When you lose an election by 1% you can point to any number of things you could have done differently, but the fact is there was a global anti-incumbent wave and it's pretty likely a Democrat running on the exact same platform Harris ran on would win in 2028.

thestinkfoot.bsky.social•97 days ago

The POINT of politics, and why you and I care about it, is policy. When you win, you gotta move the ball.

dkueper.bsky.social•97 days ago

Climate change is an existential issue, and I have no regrets about the Biden admin tackling it, even if using the monies allocated for those programs might have been more visible to voters. It would be helpful to expedite the EIS process, however, to build more transmission lines and the like.

fakeplastictree1.bsky.social•97 days ago

Sure, but when ordinary people see supposedly intelligent people verbally supporting very stupid ideas, it erodes trust and makes it harder for them to believe that those same people are going to be sensible on other issues.

imalexbeamyrnot.bsky.social•97 days ago

Or not @daveweigel.bsky.social thinks trans got Musk into X, the rest is history

pawnofcthulhu.bsky.social•97 days ago

I think the reason immigration is getting talked about less is there's much more *education* polarisation on immigration

pawnofcthulhu.bsky.social•97 days ago

(tbh if I had to like, point out something that genuinely feels like it was a mistake in retrospect it was the forgiving student loans thing)

azizforamerica.com•97 days ago

If the climate part of the bill had been zero, and I flation was X percent even lower than it panned out in the Prime timeline, ppl would still have perceived inflation as a problem. It wasn't a choice between climate and inflation.

azizforamerica.com•97 days ago

Biden reneged on his 1term pledge. That's why this was possibly an unwinnable election, esp for a sitting VP who couldn't distance herself from the policies of the administration she was currently serving in.

azizforamerica.com•97 days ago

The school sports issue was 70/30?? Isn't that evidence right there that it may have contributed to the loss?

azizforamerica.com•97 days ago

There's a lot of anecdotal evidence. Trans issues are a classic moral panic and these are known to have immense impact beyond the reach of anodyne polling.

daliberson.bsky.social•97 days ago

I think if you ask a normie, myself included, to identify a specific thing the IRA has built/funded/etc in their area, they couldn’t do it. More important than anything, these polices don’t market themselves, so voters don’t know their benefit, just their cost.

brooklynmom.bsky.social•97 days ago

Totally agree. I knew they passed some stuff that dealt with climate and infrastructure building and that’s all good but that doesn’t mean much to voters now. I did some reading and it seems like the original build back better bill would have meant something but Manchin didn’t want to vote for it.

tonyaz.bsky.social•97 days ago

And Trump will take credit for the good that comes from the IRA. That's the most annoying part.

daliberson.bsky.social•97 days ago

And the IIJA and the CHIPS act, and he’ll make a big show of if, and people will believe him, and I’ll have to watch some Dem nerd tweeting a “well actually” into the void. It’s all so fucking predictable and depressing.

rodgustavson.bsky.social•97 days ago

But it is on MAGA’s mind. Look at the number of anti-trans bills they’ve worked on vs any other issue.

Kamala failed to answer the fears stoked by trump - mainly being left behind both economically and culturally.

rolodexpropaganda.bsky.social•97 days ago

It says a lot about why our society is in so much trouble that “climate” is “questionable judgement.” Politically I don’t disagree, but the world is very obviously on fire and I just don’t get how nobody cares. (Or not enough people.)

johndmyt.bsky.social•97 days ago

I think a lot of people just like MAGA populism and used the trans issue as an excuse.

johndmyt.bsky.social•97 days ago

Inflation also made it easier for them

manuelhe.bsky.social•97 days ago

It’s small but it had a lot of leverage as a strawman for the right

mikernfn.bsky.social•97 days ago

If Harris had run an aggressive campaign primarily focused on bringing costs down for average Americans she might have been able to shift 1% of Trump voters to her side and won. "It's the economy, stupid".

anderspeterson.bsky.social•97 days ago

I agree that there were no voters who voted specifically on trans issues. BUT I also think that lots of voters felt that Dems considered trans issues as "more important" than economic issues. And those voters DID care about economic issues.

osott.bsky.social•97 days ago

The U.S. already handled inflation better after the pandemic than any other western country AND managed to get some climate legislation passed that will benefit Americans for generations to come. Maybe sometimes you just do the right thing and take your chances with ignorant voters.

jatl.bsky.social•97 days ago

People are overthinking it. Democrats did a bad job messaging. They didn’t attack and they didn’t make simple cases for their past success and future goals. People want simple messages. You have the media telling everyone inflation is crazy and the economy is bad, they’re going to believe it.

kesslersyndrome.bsky.social•97 days ago

Haven’t voted over and over again that the number one reason they voted for Trump over Harris was inflation?

janes2024.bsky.social•97 days ago

Agreed. Instead of doubling down on an issue that so many people aren’t interested in we should be focusing on women’s rights and the environment.

keithqq.bsky.social•97 days ago

Trans issues are divisive wedge issues that are bad for both Democrats and our political climate more generally.

Deprioritizing these issues and restoring reasonable discourse would be a big step forward.

averywisemann.bsky.social•97 days ago

Israel-Gaza conflict must be included.

alonlevy.bsky.social•97 days ago

No, it must not. It's invisible in exit polling data, which has no net redshift among Jewish voters, and little among Muslims (in contrast with the larger redshifts among other NBPOC). Most Jews don't live in Lakewood and most Muslims don't live in Dearborn or Hamtramck.

bicycle.bsky.social•97 days ago

do exit polls capture people who stayed home because they were unsatisfied with either candidate’s position?

averywisemann.bsky.social•97 days ago

Good point.

averywisemann.bsky.social•97 days ago

I’m talking about the young , idealistic voters that would normally trend toward Democrats -were deeply affected by Biden’s support of Israel.

christosilvia.bsky.social•97 days ago

Most of these people don't live in swing states

averywisemann.bsky.social•97 days ago

Who are you talking about- “ these people”? And to the other poster - I am not talking about religion, I’m talking about the new voting block who see the ravages of war as evil.

christosilvia.bsky.social•97 days ago

I'm referring to what you said: "young , idealistic voters that would normally trend toward Democrats -were deeply affected by Biden’s support of Israel."

And I'm saying that I believe most of those voters do not live in swing states

alonlevy.bsky.social•97 days ago

Why would that affect young voters more than Muslim voters? And to @bicycle.bsky.social's point about turnout, turnout decline would be seen as one side losing way more votes.

profbadperson.bsky.social•97 days ago

We’re never stopping climate change dawg 😭

d1puck1t.bsky.social•97 days ago

I don't know how to respond to the logic "you shouldn't do anything to prevent the world's slide into hell-climate, that would make things cost slightly more, and there's nobody to blame for that than the Democrats."

d1puck1t.bsky.social•97 days ago

I find it striking that Matt hasn't really addressed the sheer glee people have expressed over the death of Unitedhealthcare's CEO. You cannot keep ~informing~ people that they're wrong for wanting health care or environmental action while the 1% get richer from the status quo. Violence will follow.

vivianksouza.bsky.social•97 days ago

Because we've always been easy targets and the current narrative (dominated by Republicans thanks to Democrats' spinelessness) is that we're the devil, we'll torture your women and children, and we're just the worst people imaginable

Gets real sickening when all we're trying to do is exist in peace

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