We are not sure what factors are behind it, but since visually-confirmed losses are a pretty conservative floor, it increases the level of uncertainty about the amount of real losses.
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The Ukrainian numbers are likely exaggerated. Look at their totals vs. the Oryx list. The reason your numbers have dropped is because russia is running out of crap. Andrew's counts include a lot more ladas and ATVs now, and you don't count those.
So the war is freezing already
As predicted by analysts 2025 war could be sustained at 10%-30% of 2024. Best case 120 lost (30 killed) russians per day, 40 lost (10 killed) Ukrainians per day.
If anything, manpower losses appear to be significantly up compared to earlier in the war - and even without offensives there would be the problem that drones (recon and strike) combined with artillery makes rotating and resupplying frontline positions very risky.
@rebel44cz.bsky.social could the explanation be that losses to a higher degree is now caused by long range strikes and open source intelligence doesn’t have visual access to these?
The possible effects of more strikes at medium range and greater effectiveness in controlling the Russians to prohibit/limit sharing via Telegram by soldiers (as they certainly did with residents for oil tanks or all other long range strikes)?
A.Perpetua sees an increase in deaths on the other hand
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As predicted by analysts 2025 war could be sustained at 10%-30% of 2024. Best case 120 lost (30 killed) russians per day, 40 lost (10 killed) Ukrainians per day.
A.Perpetua sees an increase in deaths on the other hand