Tesla not for long. The trend is obvious. And I'm not talking about what the cokehead is doing in past weeks, but what Tesla is doing in past year(s). Cybertruck which is a total scam, FSD ruined by elon's decision to not use LIDARs and which is now a meme, and especially failing customer service. - ThreadSky

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ondrejvalenta.bsky.social • 13 days ago

Tesla not for long. The trend is obvious. And I'm not talking about what the cokehead is doing in past weeks, but what Tesla is doing in past year(s).
Cybertruck which is a total scam, FSD ruined by elon's decision to not use LIDARs and which is now a meme, and especially failing customer service.

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decakay.bsky.social•13 days ago

Yeah, that's my intuition as well. BUT, there are very common lessons in finance, and one is that you're not smarter than the market. People with money in the game disagree with your analysis, or they'd sell now.

I'd not be surprised if it goes seriously down. Also not surprised if it goes up.

ondrejvalenta.bsky.social•13 days ago

Well, people are selling quite a lot

decakay.bsky.social•13 days ago

I'm not disagreeing that it might go down. Exactly 50% of the people in each of those trades agrees with your thesis. The other 50% think it's a reasonable price.

I just wouldn't be surprised either way. Most people who think they can outthink the market find out they're incorrect

decakay.bsky.social•13 days ago

But there is also a huge expectation that it can crash. January 2026 puts for $250 (roughly the Nov 05 valuation) are selling for over $30 ... which means buyers are betting that it will fall below $190

decakay.bsky.social•13 days ago

To compare, the Jan 2026 calls selling for $30 have a strike price of $410, which means they think it might go above $440.

decakay.bsky.social•13 days ago

That's ignoring the hedging calculations of a balanced portfolio, obviously. It's more of a simple retail analysis

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