I'm not disagreeing that it might go down. Exactly 50% of the people in each of those trades agrees with your thesis. The other 50% think it's a reasonable price.
I just wouldn't be surprised either way. Most people who think they can outthink the market find out they're incorrect
But there is also a huge expectation that it can crash. January 2026 puts for $250 (roughly the Nov 05 valuation) are selling for over $30 ... which means buyers are betting that it will fall below $190
Comments
I just wouldn't be surprised either way. Most people who think they can outthink the market find out they're incorrect