The virus it taking a detour erictopol.substack.com/p/the-virus-... - ThreadSky

erictopol.bsky.social • 494 days ago

The virus it taking a detour
https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-virus-takes-a-detour-in-its-evolutionary

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slgenest.bsky.social•494 days ago

Thanks very much for the clarity. Easy even for a layperson to understand the continuing dire evolution.

javiermares.bsky.social•494 days ago

Dr. Topol, I wonder what your thoughts are on whether this REACT study was indicates a lower risk of LC per infection. I’ve only seen the incidence mentioned but in personal risk management I’d like to know the approximate probability of developing LC if I am infected https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41879-2

erictopol.bsky.social•494 days ago

It (LC) does seem to be getting lower risk over time, but the real problem is unpredictability of who will get affected

denkmalstift.bsky.social•494 days ago

Unfortunately, people do not know who is "who"

jvipondmd.bsky.social•494 days ago

and every variant likely has a different longCOVID risk, so that past studies are not necessarily indicative of future risk

levin.bsky.social•494 days ago

& how badly it will ruin your life. Ppl are forced into roulette & do not understand the risk. If they did they’d rebel against workplaces needlessly putting them in danger. Because work is dangerous think they “deserve” to enjoy the pleasurable parts of the risk. But that’s not how it works.

allards.bsky.social•494 days ago

It seems to me that most of that risk drop is because of vaccinations.

javiermares.bsky.social•493 days ago

I’d like to see it quantified. I’m hoping for new results in this respect. My expectations are quite moderate given that we started and 10, 20, 30% risk per infection.

allards.bsky.social•493 days ago

Here is another study, 43% risk reduction w. vaccines https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2802877. The ONS (UK) estimated the risk on Long COVID at about 5%. I think it’s hard to get hard numbers because the disease presents in so many ways.

javiermares.bsky.social•493 days ago

Thank you for sharing! Is that 5% the risk per infection event?

javiermares.bsky.social•493 days ago

*started at

midianuri.bsky.social•494 days ago

Isn't rather the problem that mostly it is predictively "other people" or "other peoples' children" who will be affected as soon as it comes to decision makers thinking about LC?

empdp812.bsky.social•494 days ago

Next to that, risk per individual infection may be lower but there are no mitigating measures in place anymore. Meaning higher circulation. A lower percentage over a much higher absolute figure is still quite a lot (or even more) new LC cases.

javiermares.bsky.social•493 days ago

Relatedly: https://x.com/putrinolab/status/1717544008484872362?s=46 (I hate to link to twitter but for a while that may be necessary)

javiermares.bsky.social•493 days ago

Putrino Lab: “📢📢 Everyone who gets #COVID runs the risk of getting #LongCovid. It’s that simple”

javiermares.bsky.social•493 days ago

Thank you Dr. Topol. What’s the current estimate for the risk of LC per infection? I am aware this is a changing figure and dependent on several factors (likely: time since last vaccination, age, presence of severe allergies)

javiermares.bsky.social•494 days ago

@erictopol.bsky.social thank you for your time and for all the great work you do.

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