Anyone else feel like it's been a long time since the last 8+ earthquake? It's been 3.3 years, statistically the longest break in the last 25 years. But, in the last 50 years we've gone up to 7 years without an M8+. Given what's going to go down in the next 4 years, a megaquake would be on brand. - ThreadSky

seislologist.bsky.social • 180 days ago

Anyone else feel like it's been a long time since the last 8+ earthquake? It's been 3.3 years, statistically the longest break in the last 25 years. But, in the last 50 years we've gone up to 7 years without an M8+.
Given what's going to go down in the next 4 years, a megaquake would be on brand.

Comments

parachutesecond.bsky.social•180 days ago

Living near the Noto area in Japan, this doesn’t reassure me much…although I know that mechanism likely won’t generate an 8.0.

But the other side of the island…

seislologist.bsky.social•180 days ago

I know it’s concerning to hear such things, but it’s an opportunity to raise awareness so that people can be prepared and learn what they need to do in strong shaking. As you probably know from New Years Day on the Noto Peninsula, it doesn’t need to be a magnitude 8 to be destructive

tazdevil25.bsky.social•180 days ago

Does Trump winning the Presidency...
.again ..

Count ...?..
Or was it just a Landslide without the need for Earth tremors ??.

stealingsand.bsky.social•179 days ago

wIlL iT bE yElLoWsToNe?! 🤣

stealingsand.bsky.social•179 days ago

I swear, I read the other responses AFTER I posted this, no directed sub-skeeting 🤣

makj5.bsky.social•180 days ago

Maybe the aliens are stopping them?

monstermontvalo.bsky.social•180 days ago

I was just thinking about this. We’re overdue for one with high magnitudes. Not wishing anything into existence here, but wondering what the most at risk faults are.

yalim.bsky.social•180 days ago

Not to put pressure on Earth or anything
(Sharing with the science feed 🧪)

stevecattos.world•180 days ago

Do you think that the Yellowstone basin is likely to be the next mega-eruption? I studied some of the ecosystems there for my degree, and from a geological point of view it seems to be one of the biggest hot-spots?

seislologist.bsky.social•180 days ago

I love volcanoes but don’t study them, but I know there’s a lot of public interest and concern about Yellowstone. The experts say we’ll see warning signs for years before a major eruption, and the recent steam explosions are not indicative of anything like that.

stevecattos.world•179 days ago

I find them fascinating, but I'm sure the previous inhabitants of Pompeii weren't quite so keen on them 🤔

brett327.bsky.social•179 days ago

This will be fuel for the crazies' overactive imaginations. 😂

seislologist.bsky.social•179 days ago

Hopefully we left them at the other place, but at least we can block here…

ladyevenstarbpe.bsky.social•180 days ago

And here I am... just a few miles from the intersection of the Juan de Fuca, North American, and Pacific Plates... at about 40 ft. above sea level. Oh, never mind, maybe I can watch whales again tomorrow...

sam.vilain.net•177 days ago

This post is just 1 day off having been the perfect timing

seislologist.bsky.social•177 days ago

That’s how earthquake predictions work. You just have to say something often enough and you’ll eventually be close to right, and you just let positive reinforcement bias do the rest.

sam.vilain.net•177 days ago

Heh. I've predicted one successfully before! To within 30 minutes and 1-2km spatially. OK, it was an aftershock, under M4, but the biggest for that series. Primary was almost at the moment of a King Tide/lunar transit, and so I predicted again, same spot, for ~25h later. Sadly, I wasn't in Vegas.

sam.vilain.net•177 days ago

I might have some details wrong. It was back in mid–0's after the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake, which also happened at a peak crust tide stress moment. Later an email from a NZ Seimologist prof explained to me how you need to know about geological stress loading too, & low specificity of my method

sam.vilain.net•177 days ago

This one is similar actually. Lunar standstill is now, basically, and I can't find a Southern declination higher than the one 2 days ago. This specific "+/- 3 days of maximum N/S declination" is only 12 days per 18.6 years, though not localized at all, nor useful for _predicting_ quakes

ladyevenstarbpe.bsky.social•177 days ago

The worst one I was ever in was the Feb. '71 Sylmar quake. Knocked me across the bathroom into a towel bar. Second story, lost one knickknack. 3rd floor was a mess, but no structural damage. Like most teenagers I rejoiced because school was canceled. Quiet here now, no more sirens.

ladyevenstarbpe.bsky.social•177 days ago

It was great! Lovely little roller, must have gotten just the right waves...

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