Except even the most cursory look at the politics in the ground shows neither of these things can actually happen. The Good Friday agreement... the only thing stopping the reigniting of the troubles forbids it. Further more there is not appetite for it to happen in northern Ireland. - ThreadSky

davemayhem.bsky.social • 54 days ago

Except even the most cursory look at the politics in the ground shows neither of these things can actually happen. The Good Friday agreement... the only thing stopping the reigniting of the troubles forbids it. Further more there is not appetite for it to happen in northern Ireland.

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ackthpfft.bsky.social•54 days ago

Not now, but never?
I thought most Free Staters have told the Catholic Church by now to go get stuffed. And they could dangle EU membership & economic development at the North. The UK treats the North like a gigantic dole queue anyway.

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

Never say never but neither Scottish independence/membership of the EU or Irish unification are not happening in the next 20 years. It's also a very simplistic view of how the UK treats the north. Theres been more investment per capita in the north over the last 15 years than anywhere else.

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

And thats not even taking into account that political violence is on the rise in Ireland right now. The 2 sides cant even sit down together in Stormont and haven't for years. The DUP's hard line on brexit borders is causing even more trouble.

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

As for Scotland joining the EU it would take literal decades. The EU has already said Scotland would be at the back of the queue to join even if it somehow gained independence which again there is not enough appetite for in Scotland for it to happen.

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

The SNP (the scottish party who main goal is independence) actually lost seats in the last election and is currently in turmoil. If anything the approval ratings for independence have gone down since the last referendum in 2014.

catrio.bsky.social•54 days ago

Polling shows the SNP winning the Scottish election and Labour being beaten by Reform

Polling also shows increasing support for independence

https://www.thenational.scot/news/24822359.poll-predicts-scottish-pro-independence-majority-2026-holyrood-vote/

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

And yet they still lost seats last year...

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

So we have a situation where support for independence is still far from overwhelming. No sign of another referendum and finally still on the bottom of the waiting list to join the EU should it happen. the myth of Scotland joining the EU inside 5 years is just that.

catrio.bsky.social•54 days ago

https://greens.scot/news/independent-scotland-would-be-welcomed-back-with-open-arms-says-eu-leader

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

Cool. Now show me something that says they can sidestep the membership process or that the EU is likely to do so.

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

FFS people have claimed brits could gain personal EU membership and that was all bullshit. The fact it there are hard and fast rules for joining the EU and scotland is not exempt.

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

Pretend all you want. Scotland currently has a better chance of rejoining the EU as part of the UK than it has on its own. Look, I don't much care either way, not much of my business. Just dont pretend shit is imminent when its literal decades away.

catrio.bsky.social•54 days ago

The Good Friday agreement includes the right to a referendum on reunification every seven years of the people of Northern Ireland want it

davemayhem.bsky.social•54 days ago

No explain to me how that will happen when Stormont cant even sit.

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