A classic chart by Max Roser: The rise and fall in smoking and lung cancer mortality over the 20th century. - ThreadSky

scientificdiscovery.dev • 488 days ago

A classic chart by Max Roser:

The rise and fall in smoking and lung cancer mortality over the 20th century.

Comments

scquack.bsky.social•488 days ago

That first graph is one of the most incredible I've ever seen, that's for sharing.

scquack.bsky.social•488 days ago

Thanks!!!***

martinholab.bsky.social•488 days ago

A great graph for the correlation versus causality debate :) extremely useful for my next week graduate classes, thanks!

scientificdiscovery.dev•488 days ago

Ah, you might like this historical review on the smoking-lung cancer debate. It is a great overview of how the evidence built up over the 20th century https://utpjournals.press/doi/pdf/10.3138/cbmh.20.2.367

ionotter.bsky.social•488 days ago

This may only apply to the United States.

In every other nation, smoking rates and cancer rates continue to increase.

Primarily because tobacco companies sue any nation that tries to limit tobacco consumption.

scientificdiscovery.dev•488 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/scientificdiscovery.dev/post/3kcr6ppb25f2o

ionotter.bsky.social•488 days ago

Doh! *facepalm*

Gee, it really helps to read past the first skeet, doesn't it?

Still, good to see!

vnoel.bsky.social•486 days ago

Sometimes correlation *is* causation

cannon4nh.bsky.social•488 days ago

This chart is a thing of beauty

jim.londoncentric.media•488 days ago

Huh, cigarettes only went mainstream in the 30s, is this a pipe tobacco thing or something?

flutterish.bsky.social•488 days ago

Wonder if pricing and demographics also played a part (e.g., women didn’t initially smoke and mainly rich people could afford them)

scientificdiscovery.dev•488 days ago

It comes from here and includes manufactured and handroleld cigarettes: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-of-cigarettes-per-adult-per-day

scientificdiscovery.dev•488 days ago

Yet even this is only one part of the picture – because smoking increases the risk of death from many different cancers, not only lung cancer.
https://ourworldindata.org/how-do-researchers-estimate-the-death-toll-caused-by-each-risk-factor-whether-its-smoking-obesity-or-air-pollution

scientificdiscovery.dev•488 days ago

The decline of smoking is one reason why death rates from cancers *overall* have declined greatly since the 20th century.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cancer-death-rate-who-mdb

karlpettersson.bsky.social•488 days ago

And decreased CVD too (but there are many reasons for that)! https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cardiovascular-disease-death-rate-who-mdb

michaelanes.bsky.social•488 days ago

This basic pattern is gendered; male death rates started falling years before that for women. Men took up healthy behaviors earlier, and women experienced second wave feminism and significantly expanded cigarette advertising (eg Virginia Slims) in the 70s, leading to cancers in the 90s.

michaelanes.bsky.social•488 days ago

organicbotanic.bsky.social•488 days ago

Classic is the word I thought of too.

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