EU doesn’t even need unhinged leaders to fall apart. Its problems are systemic. No chance of euro replacing US 💵 - ThreadSky

stefanauer.bsky.social • 16 days ago

EU doesn’t even need unhinged leaders to fall apart. Its problems are systemic. No chance of euro replacing US 💵

It would be very EU if the Euro ended up as the global reserve currency through a set of freak unintended consequences triggered by unhinged or incompetent US leaders

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francesconicoli.bsky.social•16 days ago

At 20% of outstanding global reserves, it's pretty good for a polity/currency falling apart.

stefanauer.bsky.social•15 days ago

Indeed, that’s pretty good for a dysfunctional polity. But there is no substantial change in sight. I’d be happy to bet a dozen bottles of nice Italian wine of your choice that the euro will not surpass the US dollar as a reserve currency in the next decade 😆

francesconicoli.bsky.social•15 days ago

(I have no doubts that the Euro won't become more important than the dollar. But that's not because we are dysfunctional: it's because it takes truly major geopolitical shifts to undo reserve currencies.)

stefanauer.bsky.social•15 days ago

To start with, EUrope has no chance ‘winning’ a trade war against the U.S., as Wolfgang Münchau explains here (without even considering Europe’s dire security position vis-à-vis Putin’s Russia). https://t.co/NXN1AHsi17

francesconicoli.bsky.social•15 days ago

Munchau has predicted the EU and the Euro demise twice a week since 2011. Perhaps he will be right, one day.

stefanauer.bsky.social•15 days ago

Mark Leonard predicted that EUrope would run the 21st century. Doesn’t look like that to me.

johnhenrylembrant.bsky.social•15 days ago

Europe is in a better position than anyone else. China is facing both a very severe demographic challenge in the future and the problem of alienating too many partners, the US is ruining itself - for one, future generations won't forget "drill baby drill" when the world is burning.

francesconicoli.bsky.social•15 days ago

Not sure why this guy mark Leonard is the benchmark, but ok

chriswratil.bsky.social•15 days ago

Agreed & I am freaking out, this is not discussed in public right now — non-stop. Instead, we are still fully focused on belittling 🇺🇸, not realizing we will be in deep(er) troubles ourselves soon. Don’t get me wrong: it’s awful what’s going on in US, but I know 🇪🇺 publics only care bc they feel safe.

francesconicoli.bsky.social•15 days ago

Of course it can happen here, and due oto unanimity we are particularly vulnerable. But we don't have to to unsettle Polanyi to see that history tidings have movements & countermovements. And Europe isn't bad at countermovements. We saw it after Brexit; we might see again. We aren't done for yet.

chriswratil.bsky.social•15 days ago

Will be hard with any of the realistic German chancellor candidates. But as you know I value your optimism.

davidgarciaspai.bsky.social•16 days ago

Such a stupid comment. The US is bankrupt and will default either through stealth devaluation or retard leadership, or just because the market will force them. The EU is strong as hell, with a diverse, low debt strategy

stefanauer.bsky.social•15 days ago

The demise of the US has been confidently predicted for at least 30 years.

davidgarciaspai.bsky.social•15 days ago

Only by idiots. The 1960s USSR turn in 2017 by the orange retard and followed by the senile genocidal maniac cemented the US‘ demise. Orange idiot wasted 7.9 TRILLION USD in 4 years, and after that their fate was sealed. Misallocation to fraud like EVs, chips, AI, crypto is all now

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