What Putin does want, however, is to lock the US into a lengthy political process that will (a) disincentivize providing further support for Ukraine, and (b) provide a smorgasbord of opportunities to extract interim concessions, all while leaving Russia free to keep fighting. /20 - ThreadSky

samagreene.bsky.social • 10 days ago

What Putin does want, however, is to lock the US into a lengthy political process that will (a) disincentivize providing further support for Ukraine, and (b) provide a smorgasbord of opportunities to extract interim concessions, all while leaving Russia free to keep fighting.

/20

Comments

sterlingwright.bsky.social•9 days ago

Yup. That has always been Russia’s playbook. But, it doesn’t help for many people to know this, if all of those people have been thrown out of the government.

pastpresented.bsky.social•9 days ago

On the other hand, the longer the fighting continues, the more people quite close to Putin suffer very violent ends at times not of his choosing

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

Indeed, this might be a good time to re-up this thread from December 2023:
https://x.com/samagreene/status/1740782922691674118

/21

christian.kuendig.info•10 days ago

In case anybody else cant see the whole thread (needs a login now because wtf): https://nitter.net/samagreene/status/1740782922691674118?mx=2

justanothermaleusr.bsky.social•9 days ago

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1740782922691674118.html

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

Putin, then, is betting that by enticing Trump to the table, he will be able to keep him there long enough to entrench Russia’s advantage on the battlefield and to push the Europeans into disengagement, after which he can get the deal he really wants. He may be right.

/22

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

But Putin is also betting that the Europeans and the Ukrainians will be shell-shocked into abandoning their own agency in all of this. That’s where Putin ought to be wrong.

/23

macburns.bsky.social•5 days ago

he is wrong the day the USA leaves Nato so will Poland and they will take Russia easy.

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

The reality Putin wants us to ignore is this: Neither Russia nor the US can set the terms on which European troops enter Ukraine, or even whether they enter Ukraine. That is a sovereign decision by the Ukrainians and the Europeans.

/24

syncarid.bsky.social•10 days ago

A lot of people in Europe, with children, are now looking at how to protect their future. It is probably the worst outcome for Putin as Europe has been here before and will arm. US has written themselves out of our affairs. Not a great future, let's see how it plays out.

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

Europe and Kyiv thus have the opportunity to force their terms on Moscow and Washington, by designing and deploying a force that would create genuine deterrence against further Russian aggression.

/25

gedw23.bsky.social•9 days ago

Is there one? Does Europe have the willpower, man power & production capacity to effectively deter Russia?
Clearly needs to but thats been so for 10 yrs & nothing has changed

elisethomas.bsky.social•9 days ago

Realistically, which European countries do you think would be putting up their hands to supply the troops and money for a force like that?

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

There is not a lot of time to figure this out, but because talks between Washington and Moscow will inevitably drag on, there is some. The first step is to stop waiting for DC. If European powers are certain that they want a secure and sovereign Ukraine, they can act to make that happen.

/26

bradbuss.bsky.social•9 days ago

Incredibly engaging thread and I agree that the onus is on the EU to fill the gap left by the Americans and become a bulwark against Russian aggression.

mikeytsi.bsky.social•9 days ago

You can now pull posts from the Nazi bar in to BlueSky so as to avoid directing traffic to the Nazi bar.

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