🌊 Today in @nature.com: Is the AMOC on the brink of collapse?
Unlikely before 2100—but the risks are real 🚨
We find Southern Ocean winds keep this vital ocean "heat engine" running, even under extreme #climatechange. But the Pacific holds a surprise…
https://tinyurl.com/yt6u4e7d
Let’s explore 🧪👇
Unlikely before 2100—but the risks are real 🚨
We find Southern Ocean winds keep this vital ocean "heat engine" running, even under extreme #climatechange. But the Pacific holds a surprise…
https://tinyurl.com/yt6u4e7d
Let’s explore 🧪👇
Comments
1/ Thanks for your comments. In our paper, we show that in 3 out of 34 models, the AMOC weakens to just below 5 Sv (sometimes used as a collapse threshold) after 100 years of forcing—with most models between 5–12 Sv, and a few even >12 Sv.
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/02/how-will-media-report-on-this-new-amoc-study/
Its collapse could trigger freezing European winters, devastating weather shifts, and accelerated sea level rise.
However, CMIP6 climate models show persistent Southern Ocean winds prevent a total collapse—even under extreme climate change scenarios 🌡️. Here’s how 👇
At the tipping point further AMOC decline becomes self-reinforcing & inevitable, but it still takes 50-100 years to wind down. I don’t see any disagreement with CMIP6 & your results.
🌊 Bottom line: A catastrophic AMOC collapse this century is unlikely, but its expected weakening still poses significant climate risks 🌧️
Much of your personal wealth comes from the tax payer and I consider you thus have an obligation to engage. Some of us wanted evidence for AMOC collapse during warmer periods than today but sadly you chose to lecture and walk off.
#climate