Last night, PJM released preliminary values for its 2025 load forecast, which once again represent a significant increase from the previous year. These findings will be presented at the Load Analysis Subcommittee next Monday and published in final form early next year. short 🧵 #energysky - ThreadSky

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gridstatus.io • 88 days ago

Last night, PJM released preliminary values for its 2025 load forecast, which once again represent a significant increase from the previous year. These findings will be presented at the Load Analysis Subcommittee next Monday and published in final form early next year.

short 🧵

#energysky

Comments

gridstatus.io•88 days ago

PJM hasn’t set a new peak demand record in 18 years, but this forecast anticipates a new peak in short order.

gridstatus.io•88 days ago

Both summer and winter forecasted peak values rapidly increase past the current level of qualified capacity in PJM: winter peaks are forecast to exceed currently available capacity by the early 2030s, with summer surpassing its own 182.5 GW mark by the late 2020s.

gridstatus.io•88 days ago

One particularly interesting change is an accelerated narrowing between summer and winter peak demand. As this delta shrinks, planning becomes more challenging.

gridstatus.io•88 days ago

Winter peaks occur at different times of day than summer peaks, and in areas with a high residential penetration of natural gas heating, power plants compete over fuel inputs rather than providing the power to meet electric demand for cooling.

gridstatus.io•88 days ago

Adjustments to the baseline forecast include data centers, industrial growth, and more. Data centers are the most common adjustment as they are now present in the planning queues of utilities across the PJM footprint.

gridstatus.io•88 days ago

While 7 zones reported more than a GW of new growth in data centers over the study period, Dominion and AEP account for the vast bulk of adjustment, accounting for more than 40 GWs over the next 20 years, with almost 20 GW by 2030 alone.

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