Here's the latest on the March 14-16 tornado outbreak across the United States - Using the Adjusted Fujita Method for quantifying this outbreak using the *preliminary* data, the AFM for this outbreak is 2813. This would be the fourth most-significant outbreak based on 1973-2011 events. - ThreadSky

nstewwx.bsky.social • 10 days ago

Here's the latest on the March 14-16 tornado outbreak across the United States - Using the Adjusted Fujita Method for quantifying this outbreak using the *preliminary* data, the AFM for this outbreak is 2813. This would be the fourth most-significant outbreak based on 1973-2011 events.

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nstewwx.bsky.social•10 days ago

The ranking is based on Fuhrmann et al. 2014 (linked). I ran the numbers on this event as well as March 31-April 1, 2023, another rather significant outbreak since this paper calculated events, and the March 2025 sequence is quite remarkable.
2023 - 1897
Paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/3/waf-d-13-00128_1.xml

kmkanak.bsky.social•10 days ago

Hi Nick - How many tornadoes were in your total count?

nstewwx.bsky.social•10 days ago

So this event had 114 total tornadoes.
95 of those were factored into the Adjusted Fujita Miles calculating as it only uses EF1+.

kmkanak.bsky.social•10 days ago

I noticed that Tom Grazulis posted on the other site that he restricted the preliminary count by an 8-h break between tornadoes and Fuhrmann et al. 2014 used 6 h. Wikipedia is debating the number of days to include. I think most ppl don’t use a break? May I have your thoughts and anyone else’s? Thx!

kmkanak.bsky.social•10 days ago

*edit: Tom Grazulis noted a 8-h break (>6 h) and thus, restricted the tornado count.

kmkanak.bsky.social•10 days ago

Fuhrmann et al. (2014) cites Grazulis (1993) and Forbes (2006) for the 6-h or greater tornado-free period in defining an outbreak.

nstewwx.bsky.social•10 days ago

The longest gap of tornadoes between from March 14-15 is only 3 hours and 42 minutes. They were coming in pretty early on the 15th as well. The large Friday outbreak was going until 9:14z wit the first on the 15th at 12:59z.

nstewwx.bsky.social•10 days ago

I'll do a little more digging to make certain, but this seems to fit into that mold of 6-hour gaps. I'll get back to you on that once I am certain I didn't miss anything.

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