I'm enjoying seeing one of our Where Goals Come From models used out in the wild more this young MLS season. It's called the "xG Tiers".
Starting with the fact that every professional league has an average conversation rate of ~10%, the xG Tiers describe in shots in simple terms:
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Starting with the fact that every professional league has an average conversation rate of ~10%, the xG Tiers describe in shots in simple terms:
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Comments
* Good xG - Improves the average Goal Conversion Rate by about 2x
* Average xG - Provides the average Goal Conversion Rate
* Poor xG - Worsens the average Goal Conversion Rate by 2x or more
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The distribution of Expected Goals and Conversion Rates align within 0.005 of each other over ~500K+ shots across top leagues. This is why xG is predictive.
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Original article here on @americansocceranalysis.com.
https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2021/10/8/where-goals-come-from-playing-the-killer-final-ball
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