To understand why the probability of impact was increasing in recent days and is likely to drop to 0 in the next few days/weeks it is important to realize that it was mostly driven by the size of the 1sigma uncertainty which diminished with better observations while earth was still inside it.
Reposted from
Ned Wright
Updated 2/19/25: much better with new data moving the estimated time of closest approach away from impact and the uncertainty reduced, so there is a considerable gap between the 1-sigma errorbar and impact for the first time.
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