Need fresh ideas for difficult holiday conversations?
Try convincing someone who believes that aiming for calibrated predictions is always enough that they are missing valuable second order uncertainty
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/31/calibration-resolves-epistemic-uncertainty-by-giving-predictions-that-are-indistinguishable-from-the-true-probabilities-why-is-this-still-unsatisfying/
Happy new year!
Try convincing someone who believes that aiming for calibrated predictions is always enough that they are missing valuable second order uncertainty
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/12/31/calibration-resolves-epistemic-uncertainty-by-giving-predictions-that-are-indistinguishable-from-the-true-probabilities-why-is-this-still-unsatisfying/
Happy new year!
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