@budgetlab.bsky.social is starting a regular Tuesday "State of US Tariffs" report that shows the bottom-line effects of all 2025 US tariffs & retaliation implemented to date or in the week ahead date certain.
This week's update incorporates the 34% China retaliation.
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This week's update incorporates the 34% China retaliation.
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Comments
Mad Monday
Tariff Tuesday
Wacky Wednesday
Freaky Friday
What do we call Thursdays under #Trump? Thick?
• The average effective US tariff rate is now 22 1/2%, the highest since 1909.
• 2025 US tariffs raise prices 2.3% in the short-run, the equivalent of $3,800 per household annually in 2024$
• The tariffs reduce US real GDP growth by -0.9pp over 2025.
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https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/de89bbcd60d7476d995f001f23afcbb6
• In the short-run, tariffs pinch households at the bottom of the income ladder 2.5x more rel. to income than at the top.
• Apparel prices +33%. Auto prices +16%. Food prices +4.5%.
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Here's my question: If, say, the Dems take the midterms and force the tariffs to be lowered to pre2025 levels, would be see things return to normal relatively quickly, or is this our lives now? Or would we have to roll this out slowly to reduce disruption?
Even then, at best I would expect prices to stabilize at whatever higher price they've risen to.