1/ Elon's margin debt... Besides being inherently mentally unstable in the same manner as many malignant narcissists, Elon Musk has the added volatility associated with (1) being a heavy drug user & (2) the warping of reality associated with being part of the inner circle of ghastly Trump toadies. - ThreadSky

montanaskeptic.bsky.social • 1 day ago

1/ Elon's margin debt...

Besides being inherently mentally unstable in the same manner as many malignant narcissists, Elon Musk has the added volatility associated with (1) being a heavy drug user & (2) the warping of reality associated with being part of the inner circle of ghastly Trump toadies.

Comments

esghound.com•1 day ago

great thread and yeah I have margin call levels as "much much lower" so while it is very likely something we can credibly discuss in the future we still have hundreds of billions in market cap losses to go before it matters

muskisatotalpos.bsky.social•1 day ago

Crashing 50% of the high today has got to be a deep psychological blow... mor please😍

qs-not.bsky.social•1 day ago

Im pegging $200 as the magic number. Not because thats his margin level (im assuming $100 as the oh shit number) but because escaping a shit chute that goes from $500 to $200 in less than 6 months is like pulling up on a nosediving plane. Possible to survive but gonna be very close to ground 0

pppgrifter.bsky.social•1 day ago

The margin call was a fun thing to talk about years ago, but much less impactful now I think. It’s still very much a confidence game though

qs-not.bsky.social•1 day ago

Yea, and once that confidence disappears theres no going back since no one will lend to him and he leads a very expensive lifestyle as is. Well that assumes the us taxpayers dont pay for his room, board & security so nvm

badgramar.bsky.social•1 day ago

The number is likely in the low 100s or high double-digits. There was discussion about this a year or so ago when TSLA was below $150, which was long after his Twitter purchase. I think it dipped into the $130s, so somewhere below that.

hawkattack.bsky.social•1 day ago

Admittedly, I'm not well informed about the margin-call debt stuff with Elmo, but I'm certain it's probably more likely in the double digits. Even at $231/share as it is when I'm typing this, it's still +$194.83 since May 8, 2020.

I think it needs to sink below $100 for the heat to even kick on.

qs-not.bsky.social•1 day ago

Yea. My point with $200 is mostly the velocity itd have. So if it hits $200 while in the current shit chute, then $150, $100 and lower will likely be hit in relatively short order

cupecoy4me.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Recall what was happening as it plummeted towards $100 last time. It can close and he has been absolutely maniacal in his malevolence since.

qs-not.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Big difference this time though is lack of public support/apathy

cupecoy4me.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Agreed, but the price level is much higher. PE ratio is preposterous. It’s 2/3 a car company and 1/3 a speculative bet on his space program (rockets keep blowing up) and AI which is vaporware at the moment and no one knows who the winners will be.

Stock should be $60-$100 at best.

policyg.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think it's important to note that not too long ago (Jan 2023) the stock dipped to 113 and no Margin call triggered. That was post Twitter acquisition and many of the largest excesses. So my feeling is that it will not trigger until sub 100.

elontookitindaazz.bsky.social•1 day ago

Yeah but jan 2023 looks like ‘golden age’ compared to how it is now and what future bring. And they know it. Shitsla is done, only question is who will hold the bag.

policyg.bsky.social•1 day ago

I agree. Late 2022 / early 2023 is when a vast majority of people in Tech realized the Musk was actually an idiot (we didn't even know what a fascist he was back then). Things are far worse now.

elontookitindaazz.bsky.social•1 day ago

That he was an idiot was obvious when he started yapping his mouth about nuking Mars to ‘terraform’ it. I wasnt paying attention and had no idea dude was lying about being engineer. Until watching him on tv and realizing guy has no idea what thermal expansion is.

policyg.bsky.social•1 day ago

Sort of the same for me. I really didn't pay too much attention until he did something I had experience with (manage a group of engineers maintaining a social network - I worked at FB at the time and knew people at Twitter), that I realized how unbelievably incompetent he was.

elontookitindaazz.bsky.social•1 day ago

Im mechanical engineer ( sub sea construction) so its not like I'm expert in mass transit etc. But that dude literally had no awareness of thermal expansion when he was talking about ‘hyper-loop’ crap.

buckleup36.bsky.social•1 day ago

📌

bbolger.bsky.social•1 day ago

📌

sleepindogo.bsky.social•20 hours ago

Margin calls in the mirror may be closer than they appeear...

patboi.bsky.social•1 day ago

Speaking of overvaluation, where would Tesla’s share price be if it were to have a similar valuation to other automakers, earnings wise?

montanaskeptic.bsky.social•1 day ago

in the teens

mrkd26.bsky.social•1 day ago

TSLA Jan1626 170p

throwingschlitz.bsky.social•1 day ago

Per @montanaskeptic.bsky.social writing 2 weeks ago: $12

https://montanaskeptic.substack.com/p/if-we-all-help-elon-musk-will-fall

cv-danes.com•1 day ago

Doh!

patboi.bsky.social•1 day ago

Thanks, I was misreading their P/E on Google. I thought it was 11.7, but it really says 117.

It’s funny how fast the fake valuation falls apart when Elon isn’t around to lie about FSD every month

polispock.bsky.social•1 day ago

Back-of-the-napkin figures show that TSLA is overvalued by a factor of about 15x compared with its peers.

airshipwriter.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Old enough to temper when Wall Street didn’t treat unstable CEOs stock at all well.

montanaskeptic.bsky.social•1 day ago

2/ Now, add to this the stress of the falling TSLA share price caused by (1) investors' (belated) realization that Tesla is absurdly overvalued, thanks to Musk's decades of mendacious promises about FSD, Optimus, robotaxis, etc, and (2) most deliciously....

montanaskeptic.bsky.social•1 day ago

3/ "...the splendid efforts of the people at #TeslaTakedown, who are doing superb work in organizing protests at Tesla service centers across the USA.

Take a moment to imagine how furious this must make Musk, who may well be begging Trump to crack down on these outrageous First Amendment exercises.

caioalmendra.bsky.social•1 day ago

It's an international effort. There are TeslaTakedowns protests in Europe too.

montanaskeptic.bsky.social•1 day ago

4/ So, how much margin debt does Musk have, and at what share price does it become a problem?

We really don't know. The latest information comes from last year's proxy statement (for the meeting to vote on reincorporation & "ratification"). It shows Musk owns 715 million shares, with this note:

montanaskeptic.bsky.social•1 day ago

4/ Those 303,960,330 shares are the subject of Tornetta. The Court of Chancery voided the underlying options. The Del Supreme Court will have its say this summer. (Unless Delaware's feckless legislature bows to Musk & passes SB 21.)...

https://montanaskeptic.substack.com/p/something-is-rotten-in-the-state

webrant.bsky.social•1 day ago

FUN FACT: Delaware's feckless Democratic majority legislature is run by Senate President Kyle Evans Gay, Senate President pro tempore David Sokola, and House Speaker Melissa Minor-Brown.

https://bsky.app/profile/montanaskeptic.bsky.social/post/3ljztlqrohc2v

montanaskeptic.bsky.social•1 day ago

5/ So, for now, barring a deeply corrupt act by the Delaware legislature, we're really talking 411 million shares, of which 58% are pledged to support margin debt.

Ah, but how much margin debt? We just don't know. The 2024 Schedule 14A proxy statement doesn't disclose the amount.

jck-1.bsky.social•12 hours ago

This is incorrect. He is not allowed to borrow more than $3.5 bln against his shares.

porpentina2017.bsky.social•1 day ago

Question: Shouldn’t potential investors know how much margin debt is there?

montanaskeptic.bsky.social•1 day ago

6/ We do know that Musk, rather than borrowing against his Tesla stock, instead sold a great deal of it to fund the Twitter purchase.

So, my guess is that Musk is not under any margin call pressure, even with the share price collapse. Also...

peggyblair.bsky.social•17 hours ago

Trump didn't write this. It's grammatically correct. My guess is that these tweets come from Stephen Miller.

omerta22.posts.art•1 day ago

I vaguely remember reading a tweet about $87 being the magical number that would trigger a margin call. My best guess, which is based on shits & giggles, is $69. 😃

wirkmittel.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think we already were in that situation once. When it was around $100 in Jan 2023? Then the stock did what it usually does when we're sure we're winning..

But I don't change my behavior anymore. I'm an old idealistic dog.

omerta22.posts.art•1 day ago

Let’s see what happens when $tsla tanks to $69. It would be nice if fElon was margin called in time for my birthday in mid May.

cupecoy4me.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Happy Birthday in advance and I hope like hell Tesla is at $39 by then.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply