A few final thoughts on Trump, NATO, Ukraine and European strategic autonomy. First, there is an honest good-faith debate to be had about the cost-benefit analysis from the US perspective of US security guarantees to Europe. 🧵 - ThreadSky

judah-grunstein.bsky.social • 11 days ago

A few final thoughts on Trump, NATO, Ukraine and European strategic autonomy.

First, there is an honest good-faith debate to be had about the cost-benefit analysis from the US perspective of US security guarantees to Europe.

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alanwayman.bsky.social•11 days ago

📌

judah-grunstein.bsky.social•11 days ago

Trump is wrong to think of NATO and the US global alliance system as a net negative for the US. To the contrary, they are one of the key US advantages in its strategic competition with China and Russia, and provide a host of other benefits beyond the security realm.

judah-grunstein.bsky.social•11 days ago

But US resources aren't infinite. Alliances also introduce moral hazards. And the global landscape has shifted dramatically in the past 20 years, let alone the past 75 years. The US strategic center of gravity is no longer Europe, even if it is still a valuable and useful theater for US interests.

fagankara.bsky.social•11 days ago

The US has become a moral hazard.

judah-grunstein.bsky.social•11 days ago

Moreover, Europe is wealthy enough to provide much more for its own defense, something every US president and defense secretary has stressed for decades.

Even Trump's hostility to Europe is just a more extreme expression of the frustration and disdain expressed by GWB/Rumsfeld and Obama.

judah-grunstein.bsky.social•11 days ago

What differentiates Trump from his predecessors is that his hostility to Europe is combined with a penchant for great power spheres of influence as well as an affinity for Putin and Xi. That was already on display during Trump I.

And what differentiates Trump II from Trump I is the war in Ukraine.

judah-grunstein.bsky.social•11 days ago

Trump's call with Putin yesterday signals that even Russia's war of aggression and territorial expansion is not enough to change his calculus about the US commitment to European security.

Put simply, he does not see the threat that Putin poses to Europe as a threat to the US.

judah-grunstein.bsky.social•11 days ago

And to the extent that Trump is dismantling the foundations of postwar US foreign policy and the liberal international order, he may be right. In a world of all against all, where the US is the most powerful, Russia dominating Europe may not be an existential threat to the US.

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