Yes, it's smaller than Dimorphos (YR4 is 40-90m), meaning it would need less of a deflection than a larger asteroid. But we aren't going to see it again until another Earth flyby in 2028. So much could go wrong if we try and hit it with something like DART. - ThreadSky

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squigglyvolcano.bsky.social • 28 days ago

Yes, it's smaller than Dimorphos (YR4 is 40-90m), meaning it would need less of a deflection than a larger asteroid. But we aren't going to see it again until another Earth flyby in 2028. So much could go wrong if we try and hit it with something like DART.

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squigglyvolcano.bsky.social•28 days ago

It may be smaller, or larger. If it's too big, we may not be able to deflect it with one spacecraft. We'd need several to hit it perfectly, all without catastrophically breaking it.

squigglyvolcano.bsky.social•28 days ago

And with only a few years down the line, we could accidentally deflect it—but not enough to make it avoid the planet. Then, it still hits Earth, just somewhere else that wasn't going to be hit.

squigglyvolcano.bsky.social•28 days ago

I'm not saying a kinetic impactor mission, or missions, couldn't work. But we don't have much time, and we don't have enough info about this rapidly fading asteroid to properly inform our planetary defense decisions yet.

squigglyvolcano.bsky.social•28 days ago

Maybe 2024 YR4's odd will rise, and we will successfully deflect it in 2028 using a monster-sized spacecraft. Or maybe we'll break an awkward taboo and instead opt to use a nuclear warhead to try to deflect it, which would provide a bigger punch to the asteroid than DART.

squigglyvolcano.bsky.social•28 days ago

Asteroid 2024 YR4 isn't likely to be a problem at all; it'll probably miss Earth. But if it doesn't, we have to be wary of trying to save the world but accidentally making the problem worse.

Maybe we'll just have to get out of the asteroid's way this time.

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