The author documents some examples from trials they’ve run, and experiments from their personal life. That negative bias sharpens contrasts – it’s easy to miss the common ground when the microphone only picks up the loudest shouters.
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The personal data collection – like writing down a prediction of how many conversations with strangers will go well, then going out and striking up conversations with strangers and recording how they went – was a powerful example and all too familiar sense of dread somewhat dispelled.
There’s hope to know that our negative bias will overestimate how many people believe the worst – and if we approach the problem as skeptics gathering data, we’ll often be pleasantly surprised.
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