Given typical HFA, a 98-win team is a 60.5-39.5 favorite against a 92-win team in a five-game series. A 102-win team is a 65.15-34.85 in the same series. Given the very high replacement level for a Dodger player, I'm not convinced that they've added four wins to the 2025 roster this winter. - ThreadSky

dszymborski.fangraphs.com • 34 days ago

Given typical HFA, a 98-win team is a 60.5-39.5 favorite against a 92-win team in a five-game series. A 102-win team is a 65.15-34.85 in the same series. Given the very high replacement level for a Dodger player, I'm not convinced that they've added four wins to the 2025 roster this winter.

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Comments

thatssotaguchi.bsky.social•34 days ago

If your argument is “it’s impossible to build a team that can’t randomly lose a series,” sure. I’m not sure that makes them not a super team though.

tarheelguy.bsky.social•34 days ago

Exactly.

dszymborski.fangraphs.com•34 days ago

No, the point is that no team can truly dominate in a sport like baseball, especially in an environment when the majority of free agent players are in decline.

thatssotaguchi.bsky.social•34 days ago

You can’t dominant THE PLAYOFFS in a sport like baseball, you can guarantee you win a very large number of games as they did (and do). You can control the margins as well as you can as they do. I don’t think we’re disagreeing other than your definition of super.

thatssotaguchi.bsky.social•34 days ago

I also sincerely wonder if they break this theory by just how stacked but injuries/history says no.

tartanbruin.bsky.social•34 days ago

The trouble with the idea that this particular team might be good enough to be a paradigm changer is that it's very unlikely to be the best team the Dodgers have had in the run going back to 2017.

thatssotaguchi.bsky.social•34 days ago

(shrugs) You’re probably right, can’t argue. They win a lot though, is all. I just feel like this is a semantic argument, and Dan’s right no baseball team gets to automatically win a short series no matter how good they are. I don’t think that makes them not “super.” I accept the disagreement.

adamdoctolero.bsky.social•34 days ago

I think 117 wins is within reach for the Dodgers if they manage to keep their starting pitchers healthy.

tartanbruin.bsky.social•34 days ago

Seems like a big if in modern baseball. On paper I don't think this team is nearly as good as the 2022 Dodgers.

dszymborski.fangraphs.com•34 days ago

If it is now, it was before they did anything this winter. They're far into the realm of diminishing gains when it comes to the top end. They're basically reducing the probability of having an 85-win year, not increasing their ultimate level of high-end dominance.

adamdoctolero.bsky.social•34 days ago

I wouldn't presume to know the percentage, but I have to think adding Snell, Sasaki, Scott, Conforto and Kim, plus Ohtani pitching again, adds to whatever chance they had at the all-time wins total.

zakepost.bsky.social•34 days ago

I guess I don’t understand what you would consider a super team in MLB?

dszymborski.fangraphs.com•34 days ago

I think a team that drastically changes the reality of the competitive environment.

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