✨New publication in Populism & Politics✨ Do minority voters tend to vote for Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs)? And why? Though Dutch Muslim minorities are much less likely to vote for the PVV, French and German Muslim minorities are actually just as likely to... 🧵 - ThreadSky

sbvanoosten.bsky.social • 16 days ago

✨New publication in Populism & Politics✨

Do minority voters tend to vote for Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs)? And why?

Though Dutch Muslim minorities are much less likely to vote for the PVV, French and German Muslim minorities are actually just as likely to... 🧵

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sbvanoosten.bsky.social•16 days ago

In France and Germany, almost all minority ethnic groups are just as likely to vote for RN as their majority counterparts, except for French voters with a background in Sub-Saharan Africa.

sbvanoosten.bsky.social•16 days ago

In the Netherlands, this is very different. Muslim minorities are much less likely to vote for the Dutch Partij voor de Vrijheid, headed by Geert Wilders, than their Dutch majority counterparts, measured as those without a migration background.

sbvanoosten.bsky.social•16 days ago

I focussed on Muslim minorities of France, Germany and the Netherlands and tried to explain why they vote for PRRPs. In France, attachment seemed to matter. In Germany, views on social benefits and Islam mattered a bit. Netherlands: immigration and Islam. None of the results were very persuasive.

sbvanoosten.bsky.social•16 days ago

I also looked at how much in-group favouritism mattered, measured through a list of four tried and tested items. Ethnic minorities favour their in-group to a much lower extent than majorities, i.e. citizens without a migration background. Muslim and Christian in-group favouritism was similar

sbvanoosten.bsky.social•16 days ago

For Muslim minorities, in-group favouritism (of a lack thereof) didn't predict voting for PRRPs much. But for majorities... oh boy it did! In France, Germany and the Netherlands it sure did explain voting for PRRPs. In France, even marginally more so than the classic explainer immigration attitudes.

sbvanoosten.bsky.social•16 days ago

In Germany, in-group favouritism also explained voting for PRRPs more than immigration attitudes. Germany stands out as the only countries where Christian in-group favouritism also explains voting for their PRRP AfD considerably, that isn't the case in France and the Netherlands.

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