Another paradox for Europe: Europe needs to build new formal defence structures. But these too will collapse once a Trump is elected in France, Germany. UK. - ThreadSky

vladvexler.bsky.social • 21 days ago

Another paradox for Europe:

Europe needs to build new formal defence structures.

But these too will collapse once a Trump is elected in France, Germany. UK.

Comments

aysanbashirpour.bsky.social•21 days ago

The solution is not to confront dictatorships unarmed, especially when history has shown that they can commit mass killings against defenseless opponents. Instead, the solution lies in strengthening democracy through legislation that firmly regulates and restricts fascism and populism.

rasneist.bsky.social•21 days ago

Not a reason to do nothing.

harjovarjo.bsky.social•21 days ago

You should have more faith in Europa. The only place dumb enough for a Trump is America.

rossmoffat.bsky.social•21 days ago

If any major threat disrupts Europe, it may be Poland, not intentionally, but for its deep-seated, post-Soviet, older generational aversion to anything perceived as vaguely 'left-wing'. A lot of eastern Europe mistook Trump & Johnson for good guys because they pretended to be small c conservatives.

flat-earth.bsky.social•21 days ago

It’s the crazy magical thinking of those people and the hold that the pedo’s in the Catholic Church still hold in Poland.

24ergast.bsky.social•21 days ago

That's where I'd agree with Vance in his MSC speech: we not only have to protect Europe from external threats but also keep a Europe worth protecting. (Although that would be the kind of Europe he's rejecting) So every European government needs to learn to walk and chew gum at the same time.

macpohl.bsky.social•21 days ago

Perhaps.

pietervoogt.bsky.social•21 days ago

Of all European Parliaments I think only in Hungary 1 party has an absolute majority. Compare for instance France and Hungary.

pietervoogt.bsky.social•21 days ago

I see now that the in UK Labour also has an absolute majority. Also the Economist places countries lower in their democracy index for not having a stable majority. That is so weird. Needing coalitions is a feature, not a bug.

rossmoffat.bsky.social•21 days ago

We were closest to losing democracy under Boris Johnson's government when his majority was unassailable. He illegally suspended UK parliament to stop debate that might have prevented Brexit becoming law. Then again, BJ had a lot of Russian friends. Starmer is 'uncolourful' but respects democracy.

pietervoogt.bsky.social•21 days ago

I guess the house of lords needs reform, preferably with proportional representation

rossmoffat.bsky.social•21 days ago

There's nothing good about the HoL. Hereditary titles, bishops etc as arbiters of checks and balances. Too many vested interests for reform. It needs disbanding. But yes, UK certainly needs proportional representation.

pkubik11.bsky.social•21 days ago

Even in hungary might change the political situation

pietervoogt.bsky.social•21 days ago

I hope so! I'm afraid Orban will just stuff the ballot boxes when he sees his end coming

pkubik11.bsky.social•21 days ago

My concern is that the leader of tisza (strongest oppositiin party) is Orban’s trojan horse and they will form a coalition. I really hope this is not the case 🤞

pietervoogt.bsky.social•21 days ago

These countries usually don't have 51% of parliament seats+senate+president+prime minister+court of justice all from one political party. USA is rather unique and stupid in this

flyer2303.bsky.social•21 days ago

Germany had lots of parties 1933.
And yet Hitler made his coup.

pietervoogt.bsky.social•21 days ago

Yes, it can happen.

rossmoffat.bsky.social•21 days ago

I think it would need a European population to want it to happen though, and from what I know, Europe doesn't have an equivalent population to that of post-Versailles treaty Germany who'd accept fascism for the promise of a renewed empire.

flyer2303.bsky.social•21 days ago

Do the US have an equivalent to a post versailles population?

And vlad was talking about one country messing up the new alliance. Countries like hungary, serbia or slowak to name a few.

Still I see ways for such an alliance.

rossmoffat.bsky.social•21 days ago

But are Hungary, Serbia or Slovakia big enough Euro fish to be really disruptive to Europe while acting as individual states ?

rossmoffat.bsky.social•21 days ago

You're right. USA only needed a trite slogan like make America great again, and enough voters who were prepared to see everything burn to break the status quo that didn't speak to them.

elgnairt.bsky.social•21 days ago

Might France and Germany be more insulated by their relatively sturdy electoral systems?

Britain’s system is somehow even worse than the US (first past the post without transparent preselection) so it is super vulnerable.

berimitsu.bsky.social•21 days ago

In all sorts of ways, it would be politically safer to go to war with Russia now.

pukolis.bsky.social•21 days ago

Doomerism can be cathartic and self satisfying, but it's hardly productive. Now is time for action.

svenno24.bsky.social•21 days ago

Why should a Trump be elected in these countries? There is still time to counteract, and Trump is not such an attractive offer for most Europeans.

baltusv.bsky.social•20 days ago

If we step back for a moment and accept that there will be cycles of progress and regress and wider patterns of evolution we can better see how important our engagement is.. It isn't enough to say "you'll be surprised when it all turns bad". We need to add, ".. So don't get complacent"

rliptak.bsky.social•21 days ago

be honest, are you looking forward to it? do you want Trumps being elected in Europe? If not, does not this fear paralise you too much? Is is preventing you from supporting what is right and fall for fearmongering? what do you propose that this will not happen.

flyer2303.bsky.social•21 days ago

Maybe such a defence structure should be flexible. And no one should specialize too much militarily.

We all need drones and nukes. 😉

flyer2303.bsky.social•21 days ago

Therefore germany needs to buy nukes from UK or france. Not just share them.

chrismwheeler.bsky.social•21 days ago

They need to be constructed in a way that does not require absolute agreement from all parties at all times. We have seriously weakened our international institutions by giving the most powerful members veto power, which becomes catastrophic if one of them elect a dangerous party.

mjoelnir.bsky.social•21 days ago

So your take is to simply surrender ?

Your doing and gloom requires 3 'Trumps'.
A Trump in 🇷🇺 - A Trump in 🇺🇲 and a Trump in one of the large 🇪🇺 countries (which is not even really enough).
Just because 2 out of 3 timely coincide now - it is far from a given it will be the case at the same time.

pwl12.bsky.social•20 days ago

In Germany will it be harder 30% is not enough

dougjulien.bsky.social•21 days ago

I am hoping, possibly beyond hope, that the current chaos of a Trump administration is making the election of a Trumpian figure in France, Germany, or the UK less likely rather than more likely. Perhaps I'm being too optimistic.

fbal.bsky.social•21 days ago

Trump and MAGA style politics will be completely incompatible with the Europe that is being rapidly built right now. Trumpism and MAGA will not survive.

fairgolfer.bsky.social•21 days ago

Maybe that is why Trump now. He's showing the world how terrible a leader like him can be. And not to make the same mistake..... I know he's s already having a big effect on Canadian politics.

pavelpotocek.bsky.social•20 days ago

Can we build more fluid "alliances of the willing"? So that if France falls, for example, it is simply expelled and the rest of the alliance is not compromised?

It seems such a model is required for the future. Seems much better than relying on everyone being reasonable forever.

b21raider.bsky.social•20 days ago

Without France, Europe doesn’t have much nuclear deterrent at all.

pavelpotocek.bsky.social•20 days ago

There is still UK. And nuclear proliferation and/or modifying nuclear doctrine for UK is not out of question.

b21raider.bsky.social•20 days ago

UK has like 4 submarines that make up its entire deterrent and half of them are in drydock at ang given time. Kind of a weak deterrent. France has better.

begemot13.bsky.social•21 days ago

Depends on how scared people are...

kotfalya.bsky.social•21 days ago

Trump will appear to fail from an external perspective. Even if he retains power internally, this perception will diminish the significance of the populist right in Europe. This doesn’t mean Europe is safe—far from it—but a “Euro-Trump” wouldn’t become a major force.

flyer2303.bsky.social•21 days ago

I also hope this is the reality we will see. A fucked up and fascist USA will trigger a counter reaction.

There was for example also a lot of Nazism and antisemitism in the UK in 1930.

But still they saw shit hit the fan. And the rest is history.

kotfalya.bsky.social•21 days ago

Trump is simultaneously doing three things: intensifying political chaos, harming the economy (both global and local), and distancing the U.S. from the West.
The last point is crucial in this context because it will make it clear that the problem lies with the U.S., not the West.

niclasostlund.bsky.social•21 days ago

You might be right. Who knows. Myself, I think that Trump is setting such a bad example, creating a shock wave over Europe that will change that trend in another direction. I surely hope so.

niclasostlund.bsky.social•21 days ago

Movement and counter movement.

cat-wolfboymum.bsky.social•21 days ago

Canada had a mini Trump all ready to be voted in with a majority. Then Trump played his hand. And now Mini Trump is crashing and burning. He won’t be PM. If Trump keeps Trumping so hard he will make it harder for all the little mini Trumps.

jkbrinker.bsky.social•21 days ago

A crucial part of Europe's defense will have to be ruthlessly curtailing external political interference, not only from Russia but also from Musk. Basically doing the opposite of what JD Vance said in Munich.

dhumbert.bsky.social•21 days ago

It might be wise to use the word “may” rather than “will.” Not even you, Vlad, can predict the future. Why not leave room for a little bit of hope? Not dramatic enough?

blanonymous.bsky.social•21 days ago

I agree with Vlad that it will be challenging to ensure that extreme political factions do not exploit the situation + that extremists do not take over everywhere. However, I completely share your opinion, that the future is not set in stone + that there are positive developments that deserve hope.

dhumbert.bsky.social•21 days ago

I agree with Vlad that this is a danger for which we must be prepared, but I could not accept the tone of inevitability. I agree, however, that we must not be complacent or shortsighted about the possibilities of success.

flat-earth.bsky.social•21 days ago

Ban X, FB, Meta…large part of the problem solved

meerkatman.bsky.social•21 days ago

Foreal this by itself would make a difference. European seem smarter so I hope they'll understand why censorship is good sometimes.

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