With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC. The leading contenders at this point are LP.8.1 and XEC.4. #COVID19 #XEC #LP_8_1 🧵 - ThreadSky

mikehoney.bsky.social • 78 days ago

With the XEC variant on the way to dominance in most places, and XEC waves starting to show in COVID metrics, it is time to ponder which variant will drive the next wave after XEC.

The leading contenders at this point are LP.8.1 and XEC.4.

#COVID19 #XEC #LP_8_1
🧵

Comments

alterivan1.bsky.social•78 days ago

Sry to throw this unrelated question here, but do you happen to know where we can find data on variants domination lifespan/length? And their average/min/max? Please 🙏🏾

alterivan1.bsky.social•78 days ago

Sry, I'm not a native English speaker, so I should rephrase: do you know where we can find data on how long variants dominate (average, min, max)? Thanks again! 😆

mikehoney.bsky.social•77 days ago

I don't have that data specifically, but you can get a rough idea from my interactive dataviz. E.g. on the first page you can choose any region/country or clear the selections for a global picture, and see the major variant waves play out over months.
1/
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSectionb55f3cf0e947c6fc16b7

mikehoney.bsky.social•77 days ago

The "archive" version currently has all the data from the start of the pandemic to mid-2024. That one can run slow as the data volumes from some countries were large in 2021-2023.
2/
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiY2M1OTdiODktZWVmMy00NDliLWI4MWEtMTIzNWI1OGI5ZmJmIiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D

mikehoney.bsky.social•77 days ago

Here's the project page for more info:
/3
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes?tab=readme-ov-file#covid-19-genomes

alterivan1.bsky.social•77 days ago

Thanks a lot 😊

fionabrinkman.bsky.social•77 days ago

Thanks for making these valuable resources still available! Re "what's next" I find it key to look at a variant's background (other variants and immunity level) in a region specifically for those taking off. A variant can take off due to its background but not be a threat more globally/elsewhere...

fionabrinkman.bsky.social•77 days ago

I don't see any #SARS-CoV-2 variants after #XEC of real note yet for the holiday season. 🎉

mikehoney.bsky.social•77 days ago

Thanks for your encouragement Fiona! Its good to see you over here.

Yes it gets harder and harder to be confident about the data as the volumes decline. ~10% of the global LP.8.1 samples came from Ceara, Brazil, where it seemed to have wiped out the competition before they recently resumed sharing.

mikehoney.bsky.social•77 days ago

Not sure what that means from the global perspective. Is LP.8.1 very powerful, or did it not meet much competition from DeFLuQE, XEC etc? Almost zero prior data from that region since January, so mostly guesswork.

sazp.bsky.social•78 days ago

Really interested as to what may be next for here in NZ - JN1 looks to be on the resurgence while XEC is not getting established. We always seem to do it a bit differently.

mikehoney.bsky.social•77 days ago

Yeah na the updates from NZ are quite patchy now. WRT GISAID they were weekly for a while, then stopped about a month ago.

The closest proxy has usually been Australia:
https://bsky.app/profile/mikehoney.bsky.social/post/3lcqqwb3wbc23

sazp.bsky.social•77 days ago

Thanks - I wondered if it was a bit of an artefact from the fact that the updates are now further apart and from fewer waste water sites. Would love to know what’s really going on - anecdotally we have increased sickness at work this last week or so . As ever 😷😷😷 is the solution.

mikehoney.bsky.social•77 days ago

This data comes via GISAID and is sourced from PCR testing, not wastewater (for NZ). As I understand it, there is a bit of a fiddly pipeline to share data there, and I imagine the funding for that work has evaporated.

mikehoney.bsky.social•78 days ago

I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs OG XEC.

mikehoney.bsky.social•78 days ago

LP.8.1 is descended from FLiRT KP.1.1.3. LP.8 adds the Spike Q493E mutation (featured in FLuQE) and also H445R and F186L – a potent example of convergent evolution. Then LP.8.1 adds R190S, which is a predicted escape mutation.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•78 days ago

LP.8.1 has continued to surge in Brazil, rapidly reaching 81% frequency. Hong Kong has reported growth to 36%.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•78 days ago

Here are the leading lineages reported from Brazil, with a linear Y axis. Ceara state (Fortaleza and surrounds) is over-represented in the recent data. Note sample sizes are extremely low for a country with a population of 200+M, so might not be representative.
🧵

mikehoney.bsky.social•78 days ago

Here's an animated map showing the spread of the LP.8.1 variant. The first sample (ignoring an early outlier) was detected in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, in late August. It has spread quite widely - more successful in the Americas and Asia-Pacific than in Europe.
https://youtu.be/lpVFzJUQaIk
🧵

mikehoney.bsky.social•78 days ago

Globally, LP.8.1 is showing a steady advantage of 4.3% per day (30% per week) vs XEC, so any crossover looks like happening in January.
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flpublicaffairs.bsky.social•78 days ago

The buzzing sound effect really drives home the visual of the spread. 😱😱😬😬😷😷😷

And the Mike Honey data brand! 🍯🍯🍯

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