With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave. The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 XFH and new XFJ. #COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH #XFJ 🧵 - ThreadSky

mikehoney.bsky.social • 30 days ago

With the LP.8.1.* variant on the way to dominance in most places, it is time to ponder which variant might drive the next wave.

The leading contenders at this point are LF.7.7.2, LF.7.9, NB.1.8.1, XEC.25.1 XFH and new XFJ.

#COVID19 #LF_7_7_2 #LF_7_9 #NB_1_8_1 #XEC #XFH #XFJ
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mikehoney.bsky.social•30 days ago

I show them above using a log scale, so you can compare their growth rates vs the most common LP.8.1.* sub-lineage: LP.8.1.1. There are more recent samples available, but the frequency analysis becomes increasingly distorted due to low volumes and patchy coverage.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•30 days ago

LF.7.7.2 is descended from FLiRT JN.1.16.1. LF.7 added several Spike mutations: T22N, S31P, K182R, R190S and K444. Then LF.7.7.2 added the Spike H445P mutation.

LF.7.7.2 has been most successful in Canada (especially Quebec), rising to 8% frequency. The US has reported growth to 3%.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•30 days ago

NB.1.8.1 is descended from XDV.1.5.1. XDV was a recombinant of XDE and JN.1. XDE was a recombinant of GW.5.1 and FL.13.4, so this represents the last current variant with any non-JN.1 ancestry.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•30 days ago

XDV.1 added the F456L mutation, then XDV.1.5 added G184S and K478I. NB.1 then added Spike mutations: T22N and F59S. Then NB.1.8 added the Spike Q493E mutation that characterised KP.3.1 FLuQE – an example of convergent evolution. Finally NB.1.8.1 added the A435S mutation.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•30 days ago

NB.1.8.1 has mainly been reported from Hong Kong, rising to 61% frequency.
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mikehoney.bsky.social•30 days ago

LF.7.9 added the Spike L441R, H445P and A475V mutations to LF.7 (described above).

LF.7.9 has been most successful in Ireland, rising to 50% frequency. France has reported growth to 9%.
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paulstenton.bsky.social•30 days ago

I guess we'll be in ripples due to waning immunity for a while.
UK has had the slowest uptick we've seen so far.

mikehoney.bsky.social•30 days ago

Yeah LP.8.1.* has been underwhelming, as it's slow growth rate predicted.
I expect the future largely depends on how XFJ goes.

flpublicaffairs.bsky.social•30 days ago

Thank you for this. Was hoping to find this exact list!

mikehoney.bsky.social•29 days ago

Great! Thanks for the feedback.

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