hydrogen will NOT be a main fuel for road vehicles. currently 3-4 orders of magnitude more BEV than FCEV are sold and this is due to fundamental technology reasons. In my team we have the paper with the highest H2 demand published ever https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.170 - still on the road there's no value add
Hydrogen mobility is guaranteed, with trucks already mass produced in China, and India are heavily committed with three models available commercially. The issue is the cost of hydrogen and the slow process of building the refueling network https://bsky.app/profile/danielwilliams965.bsky.social/post/3lhoctqufjc2a
The point is that by using the fuel for transport applications where it is already much cheaper than imported petroleum in many regions, you don't have to massively upgrade electricity grids to cope with on-off 100MW charging demand, and you can also use the fuel for everything else
So for example steel, cement, chemicals, glass, ceramics, long haul trucking, utility vehicles, aviation, shipping, peaker plants, data centres
Add to this improvements in fuel cell efficiency which will get to >70% (>60% today), and electrolyser efficiency which may operate continuously at 95%..
So you think energy demand will keep rising exponentially. I have studied a lot of energy scenarios and yours is not similar at all
My energy scenario that I describe in the first book is about 40,600TWh of hydrogen (not electrolysis), of which most is blue hydrogen because it is easier
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Add to this improvements in fuel cell efficiency which will get to >70% (>60% today), and electrolyser efficiency which may operate continuously at 95%..
Considering we use about 120,000TWh in total energy globally today, this doesn't seem to fit
Most scenarios see 100,000TWh total energy demand (TFEC) by 2050
My energy scenario that I describe in the first book is about 40,600TWh of hydrogen (not electrolysis), of which most is blue hydrogen because it is easier
Hydrogen vehicle sales? Peaked and declining.